Fed Too Dovish For Me

I covered a bunch of stuff a little while ago. I may have pulled the trigger too early, but I was really hoping for much more hawkish inflation commentary than what I got. I thought Ben would send the message that inflation was his big concern. NOT!!!!!

It was a good two day run but I was really going for the brass ring today until Ben threw a wet towel on inflation. Gold was breaking to new lows and so was USO and DUG was moving nicely off the morning lows until psychology changed. I caught RIG short for a couple of points, but all the good action was early. Still made money, just not bags off it like I thought.

I always try to avoid playing in traffic when possible and thats why I covered.

PS= I reserve the right to get short all over again tomorrow

HERE WE GO !!!!!!!!!!!!!

oil inventory # just printed. great if your bearish on oil

WAHOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Morning View

Futures are a bit higher on a decent GDP report. FSLR up $20 on a good report. Why don't I own that one? The dollar up slightly and gold and oil up slightly, the market NEVER makes it easy for me. Fertilizers catching a recovery bounce and it really is all about the Fed today. It should be an interesting afternoon and it is month end for the institutions and hedgies.

Keep Those Stops Tight

GDP in the morning and the Fed at 2 so don't get too crazy. Two names for the morning depending on the environment. Now get your rest.

EDU

EJ

I'M SHORT EVERYTHING COMMODITY

It was a phenomenal day at Upside Headquarters. I'm on record for weeks now hoping for a commodity reversal and a dollar rally. Today the dollar hit a 3 week high and with the Fed's one and done (or none and done) it just adds fuel to the fire. Last nights late post gave you a handle on what I was looking at today and I've been giving real time reports on twitter on the right side of the blog for the last several days. Take a look at the last two charts I posted today on GLD and DZZ. Gold looks to be cracking and I would love a volume thrust down tomorrow to help ice the cake. Oil is starting to move lower on a day when two different oil ministers said two different things, One of them said there was probably $30 a share of speculation in a barrel of oil and the other one stated that with the weak dollar oil could see $200 by year end. Go figure. The fertilizers stocks are in free fall and what looks to be a rotation is in full swing. Or is it just a sharp correction and a phenomenal buying opportunity? Probably a bit of both as there will be some beautiful long side snap back rallies in the ferts.

Watch gold and oil tomorrow as these groups go big on both the upside and downside. I am short USO and I am long DUG and DZZ and I took both of them home. I have a cushion as I made excellent entries today. The XME got torched today as well as names like PCU and FCX.

On the tech front I caught RIMM on a couple of beautiful breakouts. It popped on very impressive volume. I almost took it home but didn't want to push my luck. I do believe the stock is ready to run and I'm a guy that doesn't really trade the name much.

I will be back later with some ideas for tomorrow but won't do much of anything until after the Fed. Don't forget the China stocks, as there are some nice set ups developing there.

MINI RANT- it's now official. Dennis Kneale in my view has been passed the obnoxiousness torch from Cramer. Fox must be partying naked that they traded that guy. Reminds me of Tom Seaver for Jim Fregosi.
Also why does Fast Money have a person like Karen Finerman on a show like FAST money. Nice enough gal, but she looks absolutely clueless on a daily basis and has given us names like MSFT and MO. Wow,amazing value added. I guess anybody can get 2 and 20 at a hedge fund.

Commodity Massacre

Gotta love it !!!!

GOLD

To better illustrate my short stance, a break of $86 will not be good and will bode well for DZZ

Morning Look and DZZ

There is a ton of earnings,economic data, and Fed speak this week. I still think this "last cut" scenario by the Fed can only help make my case for a stronger dollar, which in turn is lousy for commodities. DZZ is the double short gold etf that I will be playing.

Late Post

Just got out of a second meeting and will post in more detail in the morning. All my charts and tools are on my other laptop. I will be watching the DOLLAR for the rest of the week as the Fed will probably make its final cut. Looking at these scenarios though depending on how things unravel.

DZZ -double short gold etf
USO- short
DUG-
SRS-I just still hate housing -double short

China Rocks

I don't know how long it will last but some old favorites lifted their ugly heads today and asked if they could play in the sandbox again. Some China plays were big percentage winners today such as SOHU, SNDA and EJ. I played SNDA and EJ with really nice success today. Both charts still look and excellent, but these names can change on a dime so be real careful.
VISA just reported and the stock is off 5%. The fertilizer stocks had a come to Jesus meeting and even though oil threatened early, it basically closed flat. I'll be back later with more riveting commentary along with some charts. Hope you guys did well today.

EJ

I put this on twitter an hour ago, here is the chart. Breaking out here at $16. My target is $19-21

EJ

Morning Look

Futures up slightly and get ready for oil to most likely blast through $120 this morning

The Dollar And Interest Rates

One of two things happen with the fed on Wednesday, a 25 basis point cut or no cut at all. My bet is 25 but the bigger picture to me is not the cut or how much but how the market is going to react. It will probably be the last cut for a very long time at least until-they start raising rates again? My call here is that it will be the beginning of the rally in the dollar and an end, at least for now,in the rally in commodity prices. The money flow by institutions is already showing a big move into financials and I think technology will be next. In any case I am watching these sectors for shorting opportunities in the coming weeks:
OIL
GOLD
COPPER
SILVER
FERTILIZERS

I will try and give specific recommendations on how I will play these sectors on the short side over the weekend. I still believe the market is overbought and we could easily pull back 500 points by way of a correction, but we will have to watch how it plays out.

WAVE

WAVE- I've watched this one off and on for six months and I don't ever play stocks under $10, but keep it on your radar.

ps- we lobbed a shot at an Iranian vessel so oil spiked 3 bucks-may stay strong into weekend, but these are the pops I like to short

CHNR

With the Chinese market showing signs of life, some old favorites come back into play. This could run if it breaks through $23.50 on good volume

My Interview With TraderInterviews

Here is the interview

Switcharoo

Today all the longs became shorts and the shorts became longs. Commodities rolled over on a higher dollar and technology and financials led the way. If you want a hot market these two groups are the ones you want out in front.

I had a phenomenal day as I traded BAC ( mentioned yesterday) USB (couldn't stop it) WU (look at the chart) and JRJC.I want to thank my buddy Stewie for the last call. In case the link to Stewie doesn't work you can find him at the "impatient trader" on the right of the blog
I recently did a trader interview which i will post later. Still not thinking strait. Miss my dog

Tough Morning For Upside

My best pal Molly, my english bulldog passed away this morning so I got a late start.Truly a rough morning for the kids.
Anyhoo, the fertilizers are finally getting their due in here. POT reported and the group is getting killed. I've been saying this for a while and hope folks had some short exposure somewhere. MOO was a killer short up around $65 but my mind was on other things.

Housing #'s just reported and is not that good. I'll check in later when I get my bearings

More Earnings

The ag/fert plays had their correction,long overdue in my book. Letting some air out is always a healthy thing. I believe POT reports before the open and it should be a barn burner either way, probably a 15 pointer in either direction. Apple was crazy on the report as it immediately ran about 10 points up and then gave it all back. Starbucks (sbux) was dreadful and they reported that it was the worst quarter by the consumer ever. Amazon wasn't that bad, but it initially got knocked around in the after market. Oil took a breather and gold doesn't want to have anything to do with the weak dollar. Odd. I don't think the correction in the fertilizers is a major shift, but it is a group that needs to be watched closely. Hope you had a good one and see you in the morning. I'll be back pre market with some thoughts

APPLE

$1.16 V $1,07
REV
7.5B V 6,9B

IPOD 10.6 VS 10.3
IMAC 2.3 MILLION VS 2.1 MILLION
IPHONE 1,7 MILL VS 1.6 MILL

Free Fall For Fertilizer

Their day was coming, I guess it was today

MOS -$6
POT-$10
AGU-$5
MON-$5

And I'm not short a share. Geeeeeez!!!

First Hour

Fertilizers, Oil, Oil Service, Gold, Copper, Silver are correcting here. A bit of a dollar rally combined wth extreme oversold conditions are the reasons. We'll have to see if they turn it around later. The gap ups were indeed faded. The semis are strong

Notable Weakness here:

MOS,POT,OIH,SLV,GLD

Petroleum #'s any minute

Morning Look

The futures are flat. Stocks on the list today are:

PCU,FCX,APPL,BAC,IPI, USO

I will check in later

For You Solar Lovers

Is It Hot In Here, or Is It Just Solar ETFs? (Updated)

April 22, 2008
by Tom Lydon

A software glitch at the American Stock Exchange held up the launch of the newest solar exchange traded fund (ETF) today.

When it does launch, the Market Vectors Solar Energy (KWT) will the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index (TAN) as the only two pure plays on the fast-growing sector.

KWT is based on the Ardour Solar Energy Index (SOLRX), which has worldwide exposure to 26 companies that derive at least 66% of their revenues from solar energy. The fund comes with an expense ratio of 0.65%. The fund is most heavily weighted in Germany, with 36.7% of its assets allocated there. China is second, with 24.3% of assets.

TAN has 25 components, with 25% of them based in the United States. The fund also has an expense ratio of 0.65%.

Solar energy accounts for less than 1% of global electricity, so the sector has plenty of room for growth.

Apple Tomorrow

I just found out that Apple reports tomorrow after the close. It's a number I always look forward to as it can set the stage for tech and usually does. The number no doubt will be excellent, its Apple after all, but the growth in Mac sales is what I am really looking at. I think the number the street is looking for is around 1.2 million sold and I have feeling they will smoke that consensus. I have two Dells and a Mac and there is just no comparison and it finally looks like the whole Mac experience is going mainstream. The analyst on CNBC said it best today when he stated that there was a time when you bought a Mac you had to explain yourself, now when you buy a PC you have to explain yourself. It's amazing with all the technology and all the brilliant minds on this planet, Apple just continues to kick everyones ass. As much as I think the number will be phenomenal, I won't be long into earnings, but will probably trade it tomorrrow.

Oil is getting close, real close.

A Stock Pickers Day

I did well today with my own four horseman that I mentioned in the morning blog. FCX and PCU gapped a bit but I caught some entries mid morning. POT was a monster even though the rest of the group chopped and USO was in a nice upward trend until about 2 pm. Has anyone checked out BLK? It's down about 30 points from my original short two weeks ago. Wish I held that one longer.

AAPL and RIMM got knocked around and the chips got spanked because of the TXN report yesterday. BRCM is up a buck in the after market on a decent number. The financials dragged all day and I may take a look at BAC over the next few days for a trade. The stock yields about 7% here and I think that should give some decent protection on the downside, even for a day or short term trade.

If this dollar of ours can catch any king of sustained rally it will be party time shorting oil, gold and all the other fun stuff, In the meantime, shippers exploded with DRYS and EXM cayching some major short covering.

Morning Check

A few names I'll be watching this morning:

USO,PCU,FCX,POT

Oil and the Dollar

Until the chart on the bottom stops going down, the chart on the top will probably continue to go up. An oversimplification without a doubt, but it really is an overwhelming factor in the rise of oil and other hard commodities. I guess I'm looking to be long as the momo is on the side of the oil bulls.

Sideways and Record Oil

Still a bit of chop out there. What is really impressive is the action in the fertilizer/ag group. Just when you think they may be getting ready to give some back,they turn around and close at the highs for the day. That' strength. Evidence of this is my last post where I shouted out a sell off in the group. Later in the day they found their strength and rallied strong. They are not ready to correct yet,simple as that. I traded a little USO long and TRA long and short. Lost a bit on the latter but caught a decent move in the former.

All in, it was choppy with very light volume. The financials let some air out as well. I posted charts of $SOX and SMH last night and both did pretty well today. I'll check in later.

Fertilizer/Ag Plays

The group is selling off very fast in here. Big reversals off the highs. I'm short TRA with a tight stop

Morning Check

Bank of America posts a 77 cent loss and adds $3 billion to loan loss reserves. Oil is about flat but looks like it wants to tag $120 at least. Futures are off slightly. I will be posting day trade thoughts on twitter but they also appear on the upper right section of the blog. Good luck today folks.

SMH and SOX

We have to wait and see where the sector rotations will lead us. I for one am looking for more shorts than longs here if for no other reason than we are getting overbought. These two charts look interesting though. I am going to be watching the oils and fertilizers very, very closely this week for possible short entry. I may not get the chance, so I will be patient.

Wow, But What Now

We are at a very interesting juncture in the market. The S&P missed hitting the January snapback high by 10 cents. The NDX( nasdaq 100) blew through resistance at 1185 and closed at 1900. It was a beautiful day for the bulls, and the bears over all had a tough week. I have commented that the last few rallies have lacked volume and I wanted to show a comment that Alan Farley made today:

We're on track to post the 21st trading day in a row of below average volume on the SPY and QQQQ. That isn't good news, considering the huge rally this week. I believe it points to the hesitation of the public to return to equity buying (or believe Wall St for that matter).

There's an old market wisdom that says, when you can't find the volume at current price levels, it will show up much higher or much lower. I guess we need to wait and see which direction finally brings in the big numbers.

He also opines that there are some pretty big opening gaps left behind by the SPX and NAZZ this week. I have rarely seen a gap that wasn't eventually filled, especially on the major indices, so it's something to be mindful of going forward.

My own trading day was kind of weird as I had a few stocks that I was looking at for entry. MOO,DZZ ,DUG and USO. I never shorted the MOO as the ags rallied and joined the party as I thought they might. DUG was not going the way I expected even with oil down earlier in the morning so I avoided it and DZZ was a good call but gapped up with gold down so I didn't want to chase it. I ended up going long not short USO at $92 and kicked it at $93.50 as I posted on twitter on the upper right of the blog. If you guys have any interest in day trades I am doing, or trades that I think are attractive, then that is where you want to look.

Keep in mind that overbought conditions can stay overbought so this could play out a bit longer, but I would be lying if I told you that my short list wasn't much, much bigger than my long list here. Hope you had a great week and I will check in over the weekend.

If anybody has a great trading story shoot me an e-mail and i will post it. It can be profitable or a huge loss or just something funny on the trading side. The reason I mention this is because a great trader buddy of mine was having a big day yesterday. He bought GOOG in the after market, did real well, went to sell it, but double sold it,didnt realize it(now he's short) stock goes up another 20 bucks and not only wiped out his profit for the day but ended with a huge loss. It's happens to all of us. It was a really big loss and I did my best to talk him off the ledge after several martinis.

GOOG

One hell of an effort. Impressive

The Close

I wonder if the bulls rip it into the close. My guess is yes, they will.

We Could Knock Out Dow and S&p Resistance Here

Everything looks higher led by finacials and the GOOG news. In pre market the ag stocks look weak, interesting to see if they join the rally later. If not MOO short could be interesting again. The dollar is stronger here and I am looking at a possible USO short, long DUG and long DZZ (double short gold etf) Good luck.

Will GOOG and Financials Set The Table?

Google was massive and breathtaking. I bought a teeny bit for kicks and giggles in the after market and made some loot. So much for me thinking those ad clicks were going to be weak. Citi reported and it looks like they did a "kitchen sink" which will strengthen the view by some folks that the worst is over for the financials.

I will be watching oil and ags today. These are the two most powerful groups out there but will hit a wall at some point and that is what I am waiting for. You can't buy them here so I have to wait to short. I can't wait to unleash the hounds of hell on the short side on both of these sectors. Maybe today, maybe not, we'll see. Soon though.

The DJI futures are up about 70 and NAZZ future are up about 18

Healthy Consolidation Day

Leaving early today but keep an eye on GOOG as they report after the close. I think they miss, but that's just me, and it promises to be volatile either way. Those ad clicks just aren't what they used to be so we will have to synthesize the spin later.The ag. stocks sold off as I mentioned in the morning blog and I traded MOO for a quick point short. I didn't take it home because even though the group is weak today, they are not going out at the lows of the day. The solars got torched and FSLR gave back a quick $10.

MOO

MOO was the call as the "farmer stocks" are taking their well deserved breather

Lower Open

Oil is still hovering around $115 and the futures are guiding lower. Could be a good set up for later on the long side. If the dollar can ever catch a rally it will make for some great set ups on the short side in the commodity space. Stocks I'm watching today from the long side are EXM and PCU. An interesting quick short set up could be MOO if the ag. stocks ever want to come in for a breather.

Nice Rally

The ag stocks just exploded again. MOO,MON,POT,MOS are off to the races. Just amazing, what a group and IBM just reported a nice number. The stock is up about $7 on the day now. I guess oil at $115 doesn't worry anybody for now, so the bulls are having their moment. We've been to the alter before with these reaction moves. We still need to break through $SPX 1395-1400 or the bulls aren't scaring anybody. Maybe tomorrow. The market is either very forgiving or has short term memory loss as GE and WB seem to be distant memories. A couple of positive earnings reports does not yet make me a believer. I didn't do much today, as the market had the gap up, traded sideways for most of the day and then the strong close. EBAY just reported -looks a little soft

LVS- Butt Ugly

LVS- this one has broken Jan and March support. It also violated June 07 support. The next test will be support back in July,Sept 06 around the high $50's

CPI in Line and Futures Are Up

So far so good but we will see if it holds. BLK reported and the stock is down about $4 in pre market tarding. So far the financials are up, and you guessed it the ag. stocks are flying pre open. I will be posting some thoughts and trades on Twitter as the day develops.

INTEL

Well they matched the 25 cent # and guidance was in line. This should take the market out of the current trading range. Thank God above. The last couple of days was like watching a bridge rust. I need movement or I get cranky. If IBM can come through it could help change the tone. The INTC number was not a high hurdle to meet, but at least they didn't fall short. Merrill Lynch reports Thursday before the close and that will be a number I will also be watching.I think John Thaine is too smart to upset the apple cart so I'm guessing there won't be a big surprise there.

China's GDP is being reported tonight and it is a number to watch for the commodity sector. A weak number there could take the shine of the apple. Everybody is talking about how they are paying close to $4 bucks a barrel for gasoline. I'm paying about $ 3.10 on the east coast. If you are paying $4 let me know where you live, I'm curious what parts of the country are getting hosed out there.

Mirant has worked out to be a great two day trade and I got stopped out on my MOO short at my stop price of $60 for a two point loss but that was offset by my AA short cover yesterday for a 3 point profit. I was short that MOO for a week at $ 58, now watch the group fall apart.LOL.

For anyone that is still short BLK (ARE YOU CRAZY?) their eps come out before the market opens in the morning.

DCR update

My loyal reader Chuck e-mailed me last night and brought an interesting fact to my attention. If oil closes above $111 per barrel for 3 consecutive days the etf terminates and resets. I do remember reading something about this months ago but it slipped my mind. In my note last night I said that I was looking for entry prices and had not pulled the trigger yet. Bottom line,and based on this new information, the best way to play the actual commodity short if you are so inclined is to short USO. I would rather play it safe than sorry and frankly until this trade shows that it is topping out I will avoid for now anyway. It could be a real beauty on the short side when we time it right though. I want to thank Chuck for the awesome input.

DCR

I don't know how long oil will continue to make new highs here, but I am watching DCR (short oil etf) for an entry. I did well on this one the last time oil hit these levels. Keep it on the radar and I will give an update. Just returned from coaching little league so no charts. MIR acted very well today as it punched through the $38 level. Let's see if we can get a high volume follow through. See you in the morning. Tons of earnings this week and the financials were crap today.

XLF

this week could be a true test for the financials

click on chart

Watch The Greenback This Week

A few weeks ago I mentioned that I thought the G-7 meetings would help strengthen the dollar. There is a lot of gas and rhetoric shooting around and it may be very short lived, but futures traders may cover some of their greenback short bets just in case it gains traction. If the dollar rallies it could hurt the commodity space a bit, mainly gold oil and copper.PCU is still one I would like to get long so I will be watching closely to see how it pans out.

BLK

BLK -this was a phenomenal short for me last week. Earnings are out this week so keep in on the radar. It went out near the low of the day on Friday and just had a miserable week.

Mirant - MIR

MIR- looks like a nice pop if it can get through $38 accompanied by very strong volume

Intraday Trades,Postings and Twitter

Instead of posting some of my thoughts and trades during the trading day on the blog, I have decided to post them over at twitter.com. This will not affect the blog in any way other than being a link to what I may be doing intra- day. I want to save the blog for pre- market, mid-day and evening posts. Just so it doesn't get all cluttered up. So check it out and let me know what you think. Frequency of the twitter posts will depend on market volatility and available time on my part. I believe you can get the postings via e-mail and rss feed. I only mastered e-mail about two years ago so please be understanding. LOL

GE The Terminal EPS Sandbagger

If Steve Jobs was a sand bagger like GE, Apple stock would be $700 on continuous upside surprises. GE has always gotten away with it, but not this time.It's easy to beat when you sandbag earnings, really.Which makes the case that the economy is really bad. If GE was the "tell" which I agree that it was, then beware of other companies that fall short in the coming weeks. The stage was set today as the market unmercifully sold the stock down. Where are these blue bloods on CNBC that tell you to buy these kinds of stocks because of the dividend. Well, I do like the yield today better than I did yesterday. If you are Intel or IBM and you fall short next week expect the worse. The market told you today what its tolerance is. If I was a GE analyst I would feel deceived here.
Technically we broke some levels today by violating 20 and 50 day moving averages. It's days like today that certainly encourage investors to wait before they jump in and buy. I guess the positive today, was that volume was once again light. My personal feel here is that we will be in a range and maybe even go much lower until earnings for the second quarter are over. If we do go much lower here I don't think it will be because of the financial or credit markets. I think that story for the most part has been told. Maybe a few more hiccups but nothing major. I think we go lower this time because of lousy earnings and the fact that we are in a recession. The question will start to become, how bad is the recession? I'm still waiting for credit cards and auto loans to rear its ugly head at one point over the next several months. As negative as I may sound I am still closet bullish because the Fed will do whatever it has to do to save the world, but right in here I think it will be tough to say the least. Real tough.
I had a phenomenal week being short BLK and GRMN which have been closed and I am still open short MOO and AA. I posted about MOO before and the farmer stocks hung in real tough today. Have a great evening.

MOO

I'm still short MOO from the other day at $58. This should be fun. Is it a triple top or will it blast through? My stop is at $60.

BLK

I just covered for a $13 point gain on the short side. Great work if you can get it. I think it goes lower but I'm not crazy.

BLK

Blackrock, which I shorted a couple of days ago at $222.50 got downgraded by Goldman Sachs and Wachovia this morning. The stock is showing down $7 points in pre market although that may not hold. If I can grab 10 points in this one I will take it. Not bad.

GE

Everyone was looking at GE as the "tell" for the economy and they disappointed. They fell short on the health care side, and you guessed it, the financial front. We will see if the punish the market because of it. If they don't, that in itself would be bullish, but I'm not so sure.

CIT

Just by way of update, CIT is moving higher on chatter that is receiving strong interest from WFC,BLK and GE. Just chatter. The stock is now 2 points of the low. I received many e-mails on this one so I just wanted to share. CHATTER ONLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Commodities

Well my commodity rollover theory lasted for about a week and things are ramping up again big time. I was lucky enough to make money in that window while it was open on the short side, but it now looks higher, at least for now. I now think oil could run to $120, not right away,but the range I had predicted for oil at $100-110 could easily be $110-120 now. I am also thinking of getting long PCU, even though I loved it as a short a couple of weeks ago. I like it as a long if it can break out over $120. It could measure to $132-135. Keep in mind it is very volatile, but that is the level I will be watching with great interest. I am also looking at gold again as a long but this time I would play it via DGP which is ultra long(2x the move) etf

Half Full Or Half Empty

The market is in that zone right now, really. I'm looking at a ton of charts here and depending on your leaning, can be viewed in different ways. If you are a bull, a chart can look one way and a bear would look at it the other way. I like to play Switzerland. A bull may look at a chart that is ready to make a break out, but a bear could look at that same chart as a potential double or triple top. Sentiment takes huge part in how I look at things. This is the type of market where failed breakouts abound so you have to careful. It is also becoming a temperamental and choppy market in here. I put out BLK as a short near the opening at around 122 and it immediately traded down 5 points, the stock went back to flat and closed down about 3. Kooky behavior to say the least. I am holding as I think the financials have a little ground to give back. The chart of XBD, the broker dealer index looks as if it could head lower. I'd rather pay lower than $180 for GS if I can. Too expensive based on this economy right now. Scary when you think the only "go to" bank the Fed had for the Bear Stearns bailout was JP Morgan. Is that a testament to how bad our banking system really is? Makes you feel like it's a house of cards.

So much for the China market rocking because of the olympics. What a friggin mess that is turning out to be. If anything, it's drawing attention to what a miserable existence it is over there. I think FXI is starting a rollover here.

Of course the market will be up 500 points tomorrow but this is just what I think about in the shower.

Still short MOO,BLK,AA

BLK

I'm short here at $221.25 with a $227 stop.

A Flat Start

There will be about 46 earnings reports today. We were so consumed with the market imploding last quarter we really were not caught up in the earnings reports that much. This quarter should be different as the markets seems to have found its balance. Citigroup is dumping $12 billion in debt off to Blackstone and Apollo Group at a 10% haircut. We are in a recession, the question is, have we or are we in a discounting process. I think we are in discounting/bottoming process here, at least until another shoe drops. Credit cards and auto loans anyone?

Just Boring

Just uninspiring and dull. Just taking it one day at a time and waiting for what the market does next. I covered GRMN for about 5 points. Just a beauty. I think BLK will be a setup for tomorrow as it went up on the nonsense WM euphoria today. I'm still short MOO and AA. See you tomorrow morning.

Garmin

Be back in a bit but how beautiful has GRMN been the last couple of days?

Watching These For Further Weakness

GRMN

MOO

U.S. Asia and Europe Lower

Alcoa had a poor number after the close yesterday, the Fed minutes will be out and pending home sales for February are on the docket for today.

Funny Note:
It was announced today that Eliot Spitzer's membership in his synagogue has been revoked by his rabbi. The rabbi explained that, while he was able to overlook Spitzer's personal indescretions and betrayal of the public trust, it was impossible to forgive Spitzer for paying retail..

Light Volume

The last time the Russell 2000 had volume this weak was on Christmas Eve. That's pathetic if you are a bull. I think we are going lower soon. Two names I am looking to short are:

AA

BLK

Sorry about the light posts the last couple of days but I've been crazy busy. See you tomorrow.

VIX

The last few times the VIX traded at these levels, it marked a short term top for stocks. Just Sayin'

Feeling A Little Nosebleedish

We have enjoyed a nice little run but I feel we are due for a pause. I re-entered a short on MOO at around $58 today as I think the Mr. Farmer stocks are do for a breather here. More later.

Minus 80000 Jobs

Futures gave up their gains on the report and we are now heading a bit lower. If the market can shake of bad news again it certainly will be a bullish sign. So far it looks ok.

Tomorrow Is Key

At least as far as how the market can take bad news. So far so good on that note. If the number is lousy which I think it will be, and we rally, that obviously will be a feather in the cap of the bulls. It will also be a golden opportunity for the bears to retake the hill if they so choose. The market has really changed its personality of late. We will have a better feel at 8:30. This why I rarely take stock home.

C'mon Let's Save Everybody!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tax loss carry BACKWARDS? That's a new one, but that seems to be what the homebuilders will soon be able to do. Lost money this year Mr. Homebuilder? no problem the government is here to save you. If you are Joe Schmo with a bit of a tax problem, rest assured the IRS will put a $22,000 a year schmuck on your ass like white on rice. I'll go back to my doorman in Naples Florida who owned four condos on a $37,500 salary,crazy stuff. But he gets to walk and we bail out the bank and the home builder that enabled the entire transaction.Good work if you can get it I guess. What ever happened to the free market man?
John Paulson made $6 billion being short home builders and junky mortgage debt and says we are only 25% there according to the gang on Fast Money.That's a guy I am going to watch. I have a short term horizon but the real F.U. money that is made is by placing a bet in a large way and living with your decision. That is how sick wealth is created. One caveat-you have to be right. My hat is off.

The market looked ok today but I did nothing.

Garmin

GRMN- I was never really a Garmin fan but the chart is looking awful. I think $45 is the next stop.

Jobless Claims Not So Pretty

Futures are lower off the number and we''ll have to see if there will be a giveback today. Financials look a little soft pre open and WFR is down about 8 bucks on soft eps.

CIT

I posted a chart of CIT about a week or two ago with a $14.77 breakout alert. Getting close in here, if it breaks through with volume it could rip higher.

Up Slightly

Watch SPX 1400 as the next test. If this is real, that level needs to be popped.

Are You Kidding Me??

So I did one trade today and it was to cover a short for a break even, not bad. I was just looking at my charts, and the DJIA is now up about up 1000 points off the Jan. lows. Getting ready for some SHORT set ups. I won't chase this rally and think the path of least resistance is lower. Too much too fast. It may need to run a tad higher first.

GLD

Support should be a around $85.50 86 from back in January and could bounce. It has bounced off todays low of $86.05. However there is huge downside volume today so be real careful.

Schering Plough and Cramer

16 different mentions of Schering on Mad Money in the last 6 months....all with calls to go "all in"...

03/28/2008 $19.47 - 26.0%
03/18/2008 $19.90 - 27.6%
03/14/2008 $18.76 - 23.2%
02/28/2008 $21.97 - 34.4%
02/12/2008 $21.83 - 34.0%
02/08/2008 $19.77 - 27.1%
01/25/2008 $19.02 - 24.2%
01/08/2008 $26.85 - 46.3%
12/19/2007 $26.29 - 45.2%
12/03/2007 $30.81 - 53.2%
11/27/2007 $29.46 - 51.1%
11/15/2007 $29.33 - 50.9%
10/23/2007 $29.46 - 51.1%
10/22/2007 $28.34 - 49.2%
10/10/2007 $32.34 - 55.4%
10/05/2007 $32.56

his apology--http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/funds/madmoneywrap/10409990.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Financials Ripping

and I stopped out on PCU at my break even, yup, a traders market

I Was A Little Early

GLD and USO gapping down and I covered, but I am still short PCU which is getting blasted, so you have to take the good with the bad.

More Wriredowns

UBS and Deutsche Bank announce more hits but the futures are up. That's bullish for now. Oil down slightly.