Showing posts with label jrcc. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jrcc. Show all posts

Monday, August 4, 2008

Lets Review, Shall We???

ICE down $10 and XOM down $3, CF down $13(twittered), AGA up $2.73, ESV down $5.50(twittered early)DRYS down $6.77 (twittered). Also some XME and JRCC short. sorry, can't get em all out. I was also short MOS for about four points. I am trying my best to be as interactive as possible here. Do your own due dilly but these continue to be the names and sectors that are working for me.

These were all my long/shorts today, all short actually, except for AGA which I posted yesterday and am holding overnight. They were on the blog either through a post over the weekend, or a twitter and post this morning. I hope you guys had a chance to grab a few names. Let me know how you did? I'd like to think these ideas are helping.

If I wasn't just short the commodity sector I would have thought the market was down 300 points, because they absolutely CRUUUUUUUSHED the sector. That's why I kept AGA overnight. This reminds me of the early days on the fianacials when everybody who was long had that "uh-oh" moment and just said get me the hell out. It had that kind of feel, and these names aren't coming back anytime soon.

I really though the financials would implode as they opened very soft after Meredith Whitney made negative comments about the sector on CNBC this morning. I still think there will be more pain there and will be watching the group carefully for opportunistic shorting set ups. Thain just said "if the world stays the same, banks won't have to raise more capital". First off ,the man is a liar, and when does the world ever stay the same?

Coal, steel, ags and oil. Look out below, but also watch for the vicious upside bounce that's coming.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Have A Great Weekend

First off, thanks to you guys that promptly e-mailed me back about the steel etf that I asked about on twitter. I was jammed up and couldn't do the due dilly, but thought it was going to crack and wanted to get short. The symbol is SLX. I borrowed some of that, as well as some NUE and X. I went back in the water after getting snake bit yesterday and it paid off in spades. Look what they did to XME today, especially at the close. I caught some great shorts in MEE, JRCC and ACI too. The daily high/lows on these were pretty big and offered shots to make $ short. The GM and Chrysler news killed the steels today. The market hung in and it had every chance to cave, but it didn't. Interesting.

I was watching my twitters today and I think it is a great example of market volatility in an odd sort of way. Something can look awesome at the open and then cave. Sometimes within a very short period of time. This is why I usually lay in the weeds for at least the first 20 minutes of trading. This is a market that is still trying to desperately find its way, and set down some true leadership. Again, the financials were impressive, and if you put a gun to my head I would have to join the "they bottomed" camp. They need to go lower first for my money though. I don't think we are going to see the lows for them again, if we do, the market is going to 8000 anyway. Have a great weekend and I will of course be popping my head in now and again.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Rotation Baby

They don't want commodities anymore. Hard ones, soft ones or any other one you can think off. Oddly, I didn't participate in the continued rally in the financials as I was so caught up being short the commodity sector. If I have more than three stocks on my screen I just can't focus. I did sell my overnight long on UYG on the gap up and I went long a little BAC and WB with profits, but it was all about commodities becoming unhinged for me. When the nat. gas # came out I went short and stayed short. When I noticed weakness in coal and steel I teed up a bunch of XME short and stayed there for what seemed like a lifetime. It was a staircase strait down and it was the best short I had all year. I also threw in some JRCC short for good measure. I also blasted XLE and OIH. I had IPP and MOS short. Too bad I ran out of money. It's rare when I press hard on position/positions, because I'm always looking over my shoulder, but I had it right and went all in short. I would have stayed overnight but they were catching bounces the last half hour. I have to run but I have some good ideas for tomorrow. Back soon.

PS. GOOG down $40 in after hours

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Watch Coal Today

Cleveland Cliffs is making a $10 billion offer for ANR. The deal is valued at around $126. Nice trade. The group may catch a sympathy move today so watch MEE and JRCC and the others. Oil is up and futures are down.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

No Applause Needed

OMG!!!! How about MA and ICE posted this morning. I blogged and twittered my ass off on these two today so NO excuses!!!! How about that rally huh? All the bulls are gathering their tails and are quietly putting it between their legs while we made money. This market looks toasted. X down 22,ANR DOWN 16, CLF down 20, JRCC down 13, POT down 10 and my old favorite XME, which gives you all of these, was down 10. I never so a move like that--in my life. I remember sitting on the desk at Lehman in 87 and watching that crash, this is starting to make that look like a cub scout marshmallow roast. Oh, by the way, Fast Money is on-don't listen, nothing but wrong most of the time. Karen looks cute tonight she's growing on me,optically I mean.

There is a rotation going on, obviously, but the question is where is the money going to go? Ain't gonna be the financials yet I don't think. Solars look horrible, and ag/fert can't seem to be sold fast enough. I don't blame the pundits for calling for a rally today because it does seem so overdone, and the natural inclination is to look at a little rally like yesterday as a potential "turn." It reminds me of the woman whose husband didn't beat her today, so she thinks everything is all right and takes him back. Last night I posted that I didn't understand what all the excitement was about. As I read the post I see that I called for unemployment and ECB news for today. I've been calander challenged lately, sorry. It's tomorrow.

So a report comes out today that GM could go bankrupt, that would be a shame. I have a littany of "bad things" that could happen and you guys know about them all, the question is can the market right here, right now, overcome it? I don't feel the karma which brings me to....

WHAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW-TWO SCENARIOS:

Scenario #1 A short trading day number one. If the employment # sucks, it could ignite sell pressure on a shortened day which will increase the fear level because we are closed Friday. Bids will implode and for the next three days we will hear about a black Monday and probably get one. The VIX is still kissing its cousin here.

Scenario #2 The number is ok and the market does nothing, or rallies a little. Fear is a bigger emotion that greed so I expect a bigger move lower than higher.

If scenario #1 comes to fruition, I will short and stay short through the weekend, if scenario #2 is the case I will wait for Monday.

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.