Maybe A New Beginning, But It Will End The Same

Around mid afternoon when the market was down about 200 points and trading sideways, I thought to myself that unless it could get a grip on things, we could be in for a five hundred pointer. It just had that kind of feel, and that's exactly what happened.

I had a great day with SMN, SDS and a short a little FSLR thrown in, but it was really all about SMN. I nailed it successfully on about four different occasions. I am still holding my long term position from yesterday and that goes for FXP which was up about 8 points today. I went short FSLR AT 161.50 had about 3 points but settled for one. I became to cautious, my bad because it closed at 152. That pisses me off. Between SMN and FXP I captured about 15 points today. I'm up considerably more in those two names that I bought yesterday and am holding. Every trade I did today was on twitter by the way.

Meredith Whitney, my favorite gal and female version of Nouriel Roubini stuck another dagger in the heart of the bull as she opined much more pain to come in the financial sector. My god is she so right. She said Citigroup will trade in single digits and also stated that the banks will be back in six months for much more financing. Can you say dilution of biblical proportions? The dilutive effect is ridiculous at these levels. What buyer would ever want to step in front of that kind of future price risk? You go girlfriend. She is one of three or four analysts that you can get the real deal from. The rest should be awfully embarrassed at this point yet they emit the same odious odor on a daily basis. Shame on them, get a real job. Worthless and dangerous to the public. But I digress. So many thoughts so little time.


I think the jobs number will be a complete disaster on Friday and the underpinnings of the market are suspect at best. Cisco reported after the close and I went short. My price is $17.43. I shorted before John Chambers said this is the worst he's ever seen and twittered that unless he pulled a rabbit out of his ass that CSCO would see new lows by Friday. So far so good, the stock is getting murdered in the after market.

Open positions smn, fxp are long----csco is short Good luck Obama, you did inherit quite a shit pile.

EPS in the Morning

ADP, AET, APA, CVS, XOM,

I posted CSIQ this morning, keep an eye on it as it may catch a move off the FSLR eps report. FSLR was up about $20 in after hours trading.

Getting Ready Just In Case

Oil reversed bullishly for stocks as the powers that be seem to be ganging up to help the greenback. This is one scenario that I buy into 1000% because it's so politically motivated. We need the dollar to rally and oil to collapse or our collective gooses are so cooked. I can't take another barbecue where people are pissing and moaning about high oil prices. Enough already. The market didn't really respond today and that's OK because they don't believe it yet. I pounded the table a couple of months ago that the G-7 would save the day. They met, talked some crap, and nothing happened. The dollar proceeded to collapse and oil went off the hook. I truly believe this time will be different or else the lows hit in January will look like top ticks. The Group of 7 (kind of like the Chicago 7, but with economics degrees)meets at the end of the week and I believe they will do what they have to do to get some sustained upside momentum in the dollar. Oil and commodities should get crushed and that could set the stage for a vicious rally. This is part my thinking, but also Tony Creszenzi who just did a cameo on Fast Money. He is one of maybe two folks I listen to on CNBC. He's a very bright guy and is usually very right on these types of calls.

That leads me to soar which I do believe is cooked. Sure there may be a bounce or two along the way, but the group is in sell mode. FSLR caught a short covering rally on some chatter of a joint venture agreement with GE.

The financials pounded their chest early but faded. I was on both side of the market on the group but really just washed for the day.WB was a trade from both the long and short side and got a little ahead of itself, but it is one to keep an eye on. I would say about 70% of my trading over the last seven months has been on the short side, but I am kind of getting that feeling that things are about to change, and change big. Day by day, day by day.

Solar Cooked?

Oil is catching a strong bid again and solar is weak in pre market. It will be very interesting to see if the group can reverse this horrible action. FSLR looks miserable and that $250 break I talked about is proving to be significant.

Monday Morning

Oil is off about t$1.50 so far this morning and stock futures are up slightly. LEH is raising a bunch of loot and the financials should be in trouble again today. We are very over sold but as you know things can stay over sold and get even more over sold. Maybe we can pull off a turn around Tuesday. If the solars are ever going to put on a strong rally it should happen with oil doing what it's doing so I will be watching the group. My favorite names there are CSIQ and FSLR.

Misery For The Longs

I was done trading for the most part by 10am as I caught the only real move in CSIQ and FSLR on the long side. It hit my targets and I just walked away. They didn't do much the rest of the day which was odd considering oil continued to go up ten points I was short a substantial position in UYG and also added size to my RTH short. The consumer is dead to me even more now. I'm just pissed I bought into that medium volume short covering head fake yesterday. I thought the market might rally on a moderately bad number considering yesterdays bullish sentiment, but when I saw the actual number, the only thing I wanted to do was be short and maybe own some solar to play off oil. It all worked out.

Israel may knock out Iran, unemployment stinks, we are in the throws off massive stagflation, commodities are soaring,banks are collapsing (city national in Cleveland has huge issues) the dollar continues to fall, GM can't sell a car and on and on and ..................................................... I don't see any catalysts, do you? I want to kill em again next week, so off to see some charts. Hope everybody hung in there today.

Monster Rally Or Rollover?

Who the hell knows? Not me for sure. Hope folks grabbed FSLR for a lovely short today. I've been blogging and twittering my ass off on this one. I did lose several cuticles during today as I shorted slightly below my $250 number and it proceeded to $253 where I shorted a little more. I took the shot as this one has become personal. I sound like an ass but this one can head fake you to no end and it's caught me on the wrong side a few times. Oil was coming in and the market wasn't impressing me and it just worked out for another seven pointer on the short side. If oil collapses I honestly don't see any catalyst that will help this name and it could go significantly lower. I was tempted to take it home but I didn't smell fear and I wanted more volume.

Lehman was all over the place and folks much closer to this situation than I could ever be think the hounds of hell are yet to be released on this one. I will just watch it for now. If it doesn't go Chapter 11 I gotta believe a short squeeze is coming. It caught an upgrade from Merrill today and that lit the brush fire. One thing I will guarantee you, is intense volatility for the immediate future.

The financials are miserable. I was short UYG at the open and got caught and had to cover. I re entered later and made some but it gave back the entire rally and closed near the low of the day,never a healthy sign. The second,third and fourth shoe dropping conversation is all over the place again. Was today a last chance gasp for air before a resumption to the downside or is the group ready to really rally? I take it day by day.

FSLR

The Eagle has landed. Go FSLR!!!!!!!!!!! On run be back with thoughts soon

FSLR

It broke $250 and has a shot at getting ugly

No Turnaround Tuesday

Manic trading for sure. I made 4 on FSLR short, a buck and a half on UYG short on different trades and a buck and a half on LEH. I lost a half buck on COF short, bad timing and I took a call, I blame my wife every time I lose money. Why not, I have to blame somebody. When I was short a little BSC a while ago, it wasn't until I heard from my sell side buddy,who is impeccable, that that contra brokers had shut the window on BSC (if you can't find the symbol anymore that's Bear Stearns) over in Europe- that's when it all hit the fan. I made a little, not the tons I should have made. I could have paid of any debt I ever had with some puts on that one and bought a chalet in Lake Como if I listened a little harder. The financial meltdown was new to me and I never thought it could happen. Lehman on the other hand is not having such problems,at least yet, and it has been a wonderful short. I am out as a short and will keep a serious eye on this one for a strong dead cat ounce. Not yet though, I have to do some more due dilly. The planet is now officially short the name and they have already told us the quarter will suck so it could be a keeper on the long side at the right price. Maybe I'm sentimental because I used to work there.

Tuesday Morning

Lehman will report their first quarterly loss since going public in 1994. They may raise $6 billion and they raised $4billion back in February. Can you say dilution? Sounds like a Wachovia situation. Folks think this is a sign of more losses to come. I would keep this one on the radar today as well as possible further weakness in the financial sector. I have my eye on Japan as a short to possibly hold for a while,big problems developing there. EWJ is the play. I also think FSLR will be in trouble, I just don't know if it will be today. They have problems with their product and the founder has dumped half his position, not a way to promote confidence. Oil is flat and futures are up slightly. Now the government is investigating the CFTC and oil trading because it's the speculators fault that oil is where it is. This is brought to you by the same brilliant minds that shoved ethanol down our throats and give subsidies to multi millionaire farmers. The beat goes on.

False Break

I'm frustrated by the lack of follow through on the FSLR breakdown. It hit my number and traded through it by a little but couldn't muster the giddy up to really get crushed. I do have a legitimate vision of a 20 to 50 point hit if we can do it on very strong volume. When I trade these situations it usually works for a nice pop. If you look at LEH however, it fully cooperated and I got "in front" of the $35 # I was looking for by about 30 cents. The volume was there and the bids just vaporized for a true break out to the downside. That's why tight stops are important in case it doesn't work out as planned. Maybe a $5 down day in oil will get me there on FSLR. I made about a point but not the visions of grandeur that I had hoped for,but tomorrow is another day. A couple of decent trades today were JRJC long and UYG short. The financials which I have been dead right on,mustered a rally into the close so we will have to see if it holds. S&P downgraded the group today and Asia kicked off the negative sentiment by announcing that their banks had experienced greater than expected losses do to U.S. sub prime. If you look at the XLF chart I posted Sunday you will see what I'm talking about. It should bounce but if it doesn't, it certainly won't bode well for stocks in general.

What do you guys think? Is solar oversold and ready to rip, or is sending a more serious message implying bad things to come? I'm in the middle.

Monday Morning Look

Oil is down a bit. Interesting how two weeks ago there was no oil left on planet earth and now we have such "demand destruction" that the tune changes. The bottom players should be coming in soon. The financials are a group to watch as there is bad news out of Europe and some uneasy news from Wachovia. I think the solars will get pounded and I will be watching for a giveback,especially FSLR. Watch Thursdays low for a massive crack.

Got Gaps?

FSLR- This one just can't make up its mind

Solar Volatility

Solar stocks are gapping up furiously here on a pop in oil and an upgrade. It's impossible to trade these names when they gap up 5% so the only thing to do is watch the charts and wait for some decent entries. Tech stocks are up a bit on the DELL report and we are looking at consumer spending and income data this morning. If oil were to reverse and rally I will be looking to short some solar.

Nice To Be Back

I don't think I've gone this long between posts since I started the blog in January and I haven't missed a day trading like I did today. I'm feeling that outer body type experience so it's good to be back. The Eagles were great last night and Joe Walsh stole the show. He is unstoppable on the ax and his slide was perfection. Henley,Schmidt and Frey will be in need of walkers soon

I don't have to much input tonight as I didn't trade today, but the solar stocks,especially FSLR, got torched. It could bounce here as it is really oversold but watch a breach of $250 (on volume) for a serious break. I almost had my head ripped off with my LEH short yesterday but managed to cover it. The stock has been experiencing dramatic mini squeezes the last couple of days so you have to be careful. The financials experienced a nice recovery bounce today and if I was around I probably would have played UYG for a long side trade. Oil got crushed and I can only dream of what it would have been like being short RIG and OIH today. God I hate missing a trading day. If I see anything on the charts that that looks interesting I will try t post up later.

The more Im looking at it these solars look cooked.

Later

I am running so have a good one. Just massacred them today

FSLR - grabbed it for 6 pts. why not- oil rallied and it was 50 points off the high in 3 weeks
XOM- covered the swing for about 4 points
UYG-covered the 2 day hold for 2 points and traded it for another 2 on short side just today
CSIQ-grabbed 2 points long

AND I HATE SOLAR-OFF TO THE EAGLES CONCERT-GOOD LUCK

Solar Not So Fun

If oil can continue its giveback I don't want to be on the long side of any solar stock. Getting vertigo just thinking about the downside. Watch $250 for a short on FSLR. They are really starting to look like 2000 tech bubble stocks to me. This is when "market not held" orders are put in by the institutions. Translation-"get me the f@%k out." On the run, be back later. Still short UYG and XOM.

CCJ and TIE

I was done trading around 1:30 as I caught some beautiful gains on CCJ and TIE. The former was on the setup list last night, TIE was not. I found it, while I was doing homework before the market opened, both I think are going higher. I'm about a $1.20 from getting stopped on my USO short. I'll either look brilliant on this or be whacked very soon. The setup list from last night did pretty well, with the exception of SEED which looked strong in pre market, then rolled over. I believe $7.62 is the breakout price but there wasn't any volume. On my radar anyway. Most of those stocks on the list did well until we sold off. Needed a breather anyway. Windy on the beach today and the waves are pounding the sand much like FSLR got pounded today. Solars need a breather and need a rest. If oil stays strong, they will be great buying opportunities, if not, great shorting opportunities. SOLF is just a monster and I wish I held it longer. I am a solar believer long term but you will get your esophagus ripped out if you don't trade them. Anyone know any solid wind plays. I feel so frigging green----nah, I just want to make money.

Be back later with some charts.