Showing posts with label stress test. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stress test. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Happy Tax Day

Odd feeling as I write a check to the government and think of all our trillions that have gone to bail out the financials on such a mind numbing scale. God forbid I'm off by a few "thou", as the call will come from a troglodyte at the IRS who couldn't spell "cat" if you spotted him two letters. The irony though, is that tax cheat Timmy Geithner's signature will be on the letterhead. God I love the irony.

White House: U.S. to release some stress test details

Stress tests to be completed in early May in a 'systemic' way, says Gibbs

Loving the above headline from Marketwatch. My Translation: we will choreograph this as best we can, have early spin management from our friends in the mainstream media, and even though these results are layered in gray matter, lies, half truths and with the extreme use of smoke and mirrors, we will convince you, the stupid shareholder/taxpayer that things are just swell.

My evenings last week on my knees in the surf at sunset praying to the Gods to make me less jaded and cynical have obviously fallen on deaf ears. I believe none of this rhetoric nor do I believe the idiots that run my government. I do believe in one thing--the whim and desire of the market, and right now it wants to be higher. My stops during the day are tighter than a camel's ass in a sandstorm as this could turn lower on a dime. I traded some MDR today and some AXP from the long side and did fine, especilaly on AXP later in the day. I was short a little too, via some SRS and SPG and FAZ, they were very much short term rentals. It was my first day back in a week so I traded real small so I could get my legs back.

I may be back later. Hope you had a great day.

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Timmy Takes the Hill-Again

Timbo grabs the "mike" again and I wonder if some clarity will emerge after his-what? sixth attempt? As we get closer to the results of the stress tests, Geithner should be hitting the front pages more and more. I'm sure the same items will be discussed, and the politicos are up early getting ready for more face time. I read yesterday that early results could be dismal and that perhaps another $700 to $800 billion could be required for the big four banks. Not neccessarily a big surprise, but it will be interesting to see the reaction. Maybe it's baked in at this point, maybe not. I still believe at the end of the day we still could see full blown nationalism for the big four as the Treasury will finally realize that band aids on cancer don't work. Under that scenario there will be "no bid" so "don't ask."

The market is giving back yesterday's weak rally as the S&P futures are lower by about 12 points. Maybe the lower open will yield a rally later on. Good luck today, see you on twitter.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

The Market is Undergoing It's Own Stress Test

The Congress and Senate have the turbines working overtime in an effort print our last dollars so they can save the world and stimulate our broken economy. GM said they may need another $30 billion by 2011 and Chrysler would like a bit more loot" just in case." Glad to hear the unions were sweet enough to maybe abandon the "job bank" grifter hand out. If my job went bust, I'd love to sit in a room, get 90% of my pay too. Hyundai will take your car back if you lose your job "no questions asked", can I short Hyundai? So swell of them. LOL. Does it ever end?

Obama was met with the same podium greeting as all the players in the Bush administration were exposed to, a crashing market when he grabbed the microphone. It's nothing personal, it's just that Christ (or whatever your higher power) coming down from the cross couldn't save this market. The dye is cast, and the move to 6400 DOW and 650 S&P has probably started, unless Obama decides to pay all of our mortgages tomorrow. Don't stand on one foot waiting for anything dramatic other than a possible dead cat bounce. I take that back because bear market bounces as you guys know, can be vicious,and money can be made from both side of this broken beast.

FAZ had a great day and that was my name of choice, no surprise there. I got involved pre-market, which I don't advise anyone to do, but I smelled death and went short GS, IYR and long FAZ. It worked nicely. We are staring into the abyss at this critical juncture in the market, and only the "outside the boxers" will flourish. Opportunity abounds, so stay alert and be smart. I will try and get some charts up later, but when things are falling apart I don't know how much credence it will give. Later

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.