Lehman Speaks

Their stock has been all over the place this morning and is now moving a bit higher from the lows, and at least for now, the financials have rallied off their pre market lows.

I am looking for some bounces in the commodity sector but have a very tight string on everything here.

I like APA as a short under about 100.45. Not at the open, and I want volume and some help from the group.

I don't trust much here

Victory

The greenback exploded this week and that was the catalyst for the implosion in commodities. This mornings blog was pretty right on with regard to how to play the move. I was short all the names on that list as well as long the UAUA which gave some good opportunities to get long. I've been trading "around " the agriculture stocks, both long and short this week but I'm glad I am still short AGA, which is the double short ag, etf which I have had since Monday.

I really missed the long side move in technology this week as I was caught up in the commodity sector. I will be looking for opportunities over the weekend in that space. This commodity money has to go somewhere and I think that group will be home sweet home for a while. The financials are way over bought and I will be looking for shorts there for next week.

Charts that lightly breached support today were APA and MEE. Absent a recovery rally, these two look destined for the graveyard as well as many others that I will post this weekend. I posted their charts last night, check them out. Also, I posted a bunch of charts last night stating that if we are to start a new bull run, those stocks on the list had to fail. Well,they all failed pretty well today and I hope you were able to take advantage.

Right now, the theme is STRONG DOLLAR AND SELL COMMODITIES. Don't be crazy short though, wait for set ups, they will have a snap back rally, and you won't want to get caught.

I am grabbing my honey and a beer and going out to dinner. Check you later.

Two Setups

APA was one of my many shorts yesterday and the chart has issues. Also I never bought an airline in my life as I hate the group, but the UAUA chart looks awesome

Nasty Givebacks

Kinda how the financials started

Stay Smart

State Street (STT) was a beat yesterday and WFC beat today and raised the dividend. It was up about 30%. In my last post I said that I wanted to see a close at or very near the high on the financials. It was a good close and it makes me a little more confident we can resume things in the morning. I actually kept a little UYG long overnight. A good number from JPM should instill some more confidence tomorrow. This a two xanax, double shot moment at the bar for the shorts. Right now they are panicked and are praying we don't gap up in the morning. I am not all all convinced this is the bottom but I will trade what I see, and right now I see green for the financials. Keep in mind the last two big rallies we gave ALL back the next day. However, it does feel real this time. I made most of my money short energy right after the inventory number. Bids imploded and I killed them. I was short APA,CHK,OIH and XLE. I covered about 30 minutes later with nice gains. It wasn't until after lunch that I started getting long the financials, mainly UYG. All of these names were on the blog last night and this morning and twittered throughout the day.

Don't forget about GOOG after the close, a good number in a better market could make this one get silly again. Amnesia can be a killer, so don't forget how bad things were yesterday, the day before and the day before that. These rallies will lull you then rip your esophagus out if you get complacent. Right now though, it's all about emotion and sentiment and NOT the charts or the fundamentals and short squeezes take more than one day to get resolved. The key for me tomorrow will be the ability to sustain this move. If the longs don't use this financial rally to unload, which they've done every time in the past, then this rally will have legs.

As far as oil goes, I think we get lower prices for he rest f the week. After that it could be onward again. This move down is because of the thinking that China is slowing. We've heard that before and it always turns around and bites us. I worry more about Israel, Iran and the Straits of Hormuz more than a 1% perceived decline in China's growth rate. Right now though the momo is down and I still like the names that I posted last night and this morning.

The sad and ironic thing about today is that that Bernanke and Paulson and Cox will take the credit and they had NOTHING to do with it. A beautiful testament to how free markets actually fix themselves ON THEIR OWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and they always will. Go America.

Some Setups