Apple After The Close Today

Apple reports after the close today and the consensus estimate is $1.40 and the whisper number is $1.46. I hope the number is good in the face of a Jobs departure and a horrible stock market, a miss and it could get punished.

The futures are catching a bounce this morning and the all powerful 8000 level is the psychological and technical level to watch. The bulls also will want to retake the 815 level on the S&P.

Good look today, and i will see you on twitter.

Some Shorts For the Week Ahead

Levels to watch ONLY if the financials take a further dive. AAPL trades separately.

No You Big Dope, We Haven't Botttomed

Why Can't This Market Have A Follow Through Day?

Maybe because the credit crisis is morphing into an economic crisis and folks are scared, I don't know. That's how I think it plays out, but that's just me. AAPL guided lower but the stock moved higher in the after market. It's not all bad, but the market is rudderless and has absolutely no leadership right now.

The bloom has really fallen off the rose over at RIMM headquarters and now we wait for the next Wall St. darling because it isn't RIMM anymore. So many trapped longs in that crowded name. Not much support below $50---45 then 40.

If the market is true to itself, it will rally tomorrow as it has become a puzzle wrapped in an enigma. Great for traders but not for the faint of heart. I'm trying to get my hands on the transcript of Paulson lobbying hard for 40 to 1 leverage while at the helm of GS so he could "diversify" its business. Now the fox has the key to the hen house. Funny how things turn out.

Just Change The Accounting Stupid

Well,it looks like it's a good thing some smarter minds didn't buy into the "let's sign this bill Monday at dawns first light or Rome will burn" theory. I don't know how this bill will play out, but hopefully it will be far better than the one the tried to shove down or throats on Monday. I wonder if this gets resolved for the betterment of all of us, if the parties that did not sign the bill will now get some credit. But I digress, and the jury is certainly still out. It's still a lot of money but so far the tweaks look like they may make some sense. Bring in the FDIC and burn to the ground mark to market accounting and the nightmare may be easier to navigate. Amazing how things can change when cooler heads prevail.

I really just traded AAPL today. I really don't have any history with the name, any buys in the past were met with losses. I am the only human being on the planet that never made a dime in AAPL. Does anyone have a stock that hates you? That's AAPL for me. But today I did well with it. I posted on twitter that AAPL was being treated like it had sub prime and made asbestos. It was over done and I did well.

Cramer on in the background, what a complete schmuck.

Not Again

First off, all the names on the board this weekend were phenomenal successes, the longs and the shorts, and yes, the financials were way short term overbought. I hope everyone did well. I returned home late today as I shorted a bunch of stocks in the after market. I killed AAPL for about seven points. I'm never long or short through an actual earnings reports, but I have no problem shooting them when they are crawling across the floor trying to catch their last breath, as AAPL, AXP, MRK, COF and UYG did. I kept UYG overnight. I was short STI and UYG most of the day and just shorted the rallies and bounces in most of the financials when I could grab one. Steel and coal were very strong today and and the fertilizer/agri. plays were strong as well. The AXP conference call was dreary and depressing and I think the financials will give some more back as well as the market in general. We still have problems and they haven't been resolved because a three day bounce. Everyone was way to giddy.

When the leaders in the market like GOOG and AAPL, which NEVER disappoint, start disappointing it makes me think the jig is up

CELG,CEPH and IBB performed very well today and these can be good names to hide out.

Apple, It's All About The Mac

I have never been a big trader in Apple stock, it's one of those names that I have never had luck with, meanwhile half of the planet has gotten rich owning the stock. However, I do use their products and have been a Macbook user for about four years ( I use my Dell for the blog and for trading)). I have always agreed with the pros who state that the iPod was the carrot to get people to buy Macs, and the iPhone to some degree as well. The earnings are Monday after the close. I don't play earnings and I really don't have a feel on this one. Here is a comment on the coming report from Gene Munster:

Gene Munster, analyst with Piper Jaffray, wrote in a note earlier today that the key to the quarter will be Mac sales: he sees 2.35 million units, which he says is ahead of the Street consensus of 2.2 million. He expects 10.5 million iPods for the quarter, versus the Street at 10.3 million. He puts iPhone units for the quarter at 730,000. If the company hits those numbers and turns in a gross margin of 33%, he says, Apple would post $7.67 billion in revenue and profits of $1.13, well above both the guidance and the Street.

More Earnings

The ag/fert plays had their correction,long overdue in my book. Letting some air out is always a healthy thing. I believe POT reports before the open and it should be a barn burner either way, probably a 15 pointer in either direction. Apple was crazy on the report as it immediately ran about 10 points up and then gave it all back. Starbucks (sbux) was dreadful and they reported that it was the worst quarter by the consumer ever. Amazon wasn't that bad, but it initially got knocked around in the after market. Oil took a breather and gold doesn't want to have anything to do with the weak dollar. Odd. I don't think the correction in the fertilizers is a major shift, but it is a group that needs to be watched closely. Hope you had a good one and see you in the morning. I'll be back pre market with some thoughts

Apple Tomorrow

I just found out that Apple reports tomorrow after the close. It's a number I always look forward to as it can set the stage for tech and usually does. The number no doubt will be excellent, its Apple after all, but the growth in Mac sales is what I am really looking at. I think the number the street is looking for is around 1.2 million sold and I have feeling they will smoke that consensus. I have two Dells and a Mac and there is just no comparison and it finally looks like the whole Mac experience is going mainstream. The analyst on CNBC said it best today when he stated that there was a time when you bought a Mac you had to explain yourself, now when you buy a PC you have to explain yourself. It's amazing with all the technology and all the brilliant minds on this planet, Apple just continues to kick everyones ass. As much as I think the number will be phenomenal, I won't be long into earnings, but will probably trade it tomorrrow.

Oil is getting close, real close.

A Stock Pickers Day

I did well today with my own four horseman that I mentioned in the morning blog. FCX and PCU gapped a bit but I caught some entries mid morning. POT was a monster even though the rest of the group chopped and USO was in a nice upward trend until about 2 pm. Has anyone checked out BLK? It's down about 30 points from my original short two weeks ago. Wish I held that one longer.

AAPL and RIMM got knocked around and the chips got spanked because of the TXN report yesterday. BRCM is up a buck in the after market on a decent number. The financials dragged all day and I may take a look at BAC over the next few days for a trade. The stock yields about 7% here and I think that should give some decent protection on the downside, even for a day or short term trade.

If this dollar of ours can catch any king of sustained rally it will be party time shorting oil, gold and all the other fun stuff, In the meantime, shippers exploded with DRYS and EXM cayching some major short covering.

AAPL Not this time

Apple and the boy genius aren't saving the market or their own stock price this afternoon. At least not yet. AAPL off about 9.5 pts right now. FEED- opened well at about $11.15 and went strait to $11.70 in a crappy open, but decided to give back gains. I still like it very much but we could use a better market. I will be watching it closely this afternoon