You Can't Bring A Knife To A Gunfight

Bernanke doesn't have any juice. The commodity bears were praying he would talk tough on inflation(everyone knew he wouldn't raise), but instead it was the same canned BS, much like the canned BS that the G-8 pulled a week ago about strengthening the dollar. Nonsense, useless, a complete waste of time and jet fuel. I tried to test all levels of human obnoxiousness with my last post and it was done very tongue and cheek, God forbid you folks think I'm a complete ass, but when you make a perfect call you have to give yourself props, God knows I don't get enough love from the blog comments and I have made enough money from this blog to maybe buy a great steak and a good bottle of wine-once- and alone. But I digress.

I was long OIH,XLE, and QCOM in the morning. The world at that point in time thought Uncle Ben would "fix" things. Oil was fading and the financials were on fire. I was up big and covered everything. Then I saw the oils starting to act better and I thought if the Fed didn't cut, which they weren't going to do anyway, then the commodity bulls would have there way again anyway. What's the catalyst to stop them? The G-8 meeting didn't do a damn thing to strengthen the greenback, and it's business as usual with the Fed. I was right, and it feels good to anticipate and be so right. As I said in that last post, if this scenario played out I would switch gears, and I did. I went "long" OIH and XLE and shorted the breath out of the UYG and MER. As I said last night they caught a dead cat bounce (the financials) and that's all they caught.

The OIH rallied eight points off the lows (of course I didn't catch all that move) and XLE rallied beautifully off the lows. I went long and made some nice loot, but the real impact for me was getting short UYG and MER. UYG closed about 10 cents off the day low and gave back EVERYTHING!! MER closed a little off the lows and if it had more time I think was ready to implode. So much for falling oil solving the markets problems, we now know Bernanke can't. The commodity bulls got a free pass for now and I personally think they continue higher. Show me a catalyst for lower oil,and I'll listen. It sure won't be Israel lobbing some missiles into Iran. MOS rallied about 8 points off its low and IPI rallied about 6 points off its low, amazing reversals.

After the close, RIMM,NKE and ORCL are all lower. The open should be lower. I am going to stay with the girls I brought to this dance, energy long and financials short. I like the ferts for a bounce too. Watch the steels, especially NUE. I wanted to buy IPI down 6 but never pulled the trigger. My bad. Catch you later and don't buy the pundits.

The Open

Weak- oil,steel,coal,ferts,solar

Strong-semis,financials

I'm long some QCOM

Shopping LIst and Have A Great Weekend

I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to the weekend. I'm ready to fire up the barby,eat some red meat and drink some good wine. It was an emotionally taxing week with oil behaving the way it did and stocks just acting way to funky. I was short XOM all day and took it home as it closed right near the low of the day, and I was short UYG all day which I also took home.I don't trust what oil will do, but the XOM chart is speaking volumes. My RTH short is working well and I am still short. I caught CSUN for a nice trade thanks to my trader buddy Bert, and I just want to hang myself for not jumping on QCOM at the open. It was on the top of my list this morning as the chart looked so sweet, but I got caught on a phone call and just flat out missed it. It gave me several opportunities on pullbacks to get involved but I was too pissed to throw money at it. Just stupid, those perfect setups don't come around everyday. The solars had a later day rally and looked pretty good but I didn't trust anything today as the technicals were lousy and the volume was crap. It reminded it me off Christmas or Thanksgiving eve, where really anything can happen.

This weekend I will be working on a shopping list for next week. Many good stocks are at or near great buy ranges. I will also be analyzing my trading and how I can improve. I'm such a work in progress and it is truly amazing that I literally learn something new everyday. I listen to a live feed to the S&P pits in Chicago every day and a trader there was talking about how "you never let your trade turn into a prayer." Words to live by, you will be able to stay in this wonderful crazy business forever through risk management and realistic position sizing. Simple techniques, the hard part is living by it every minute. I will thinking out loud over the weekend. Please enjoy the weekend and the folks that you love. It ain't all about the dollars.

PS I sold all solar names I had in the CNBC challenge

NO Reason To Be Long Here

I was long QCOM in the morning, nice trade. I was later short DUG(short oil etf) because I thought oil was going up.I made a half buck. I shorted UYG (double long financials) because I thought financials would get wrecked. They did and I made over a a point. PACR hasn't made me any real money yet but look at the action the last two days in crappy markets. The Fed minutes revealed a lousy outlook that includes inflation and higher unemployment. Very nice.

For those folks trading DUG on a move down in oil-shouldn't it have been killed today? Yet it went higher with oil and closed at the highs. Odd isn't it? From the cursory due diligence I have done, DUG looks like a more correlated play on the action in XOM (Exxon). I don't have time now, but go pull a chart on DUG and XOM . Around 2pm XOM rolled over and DUG moved higher at the same time, Even with oil at the high of the day. That's why if I think oil is going lower I just short USO. It worked well for me as a short earlier in the day because EXXON hadn't rolled over yet. Hope this tid bit helps because I couldn't understand the dynamic at all. I bought SDS (double short etf) around 3pm as I thought the bulls were scared shitless and wouldn't be in the mood to make bids. You know how it ended. Be smart and wait for more of a pullback.

As you know I borrowed USO to short. I never did it. Maybe tomorrow.

Pressure

I borrowed five hundred DRYS to short at around 8:30 am. I shorted 100 of it pre market, around 9.25 am.It immediately gaps down about 5 points. So why didn't I short the whole 500? Partly because I'm an ass, but mainly because it's wicked volatile and i usually ease in to a name like that, especially that early in the day. I never trade that early, but I had a feeling. In my mid day post I was actually long the name at $99 and kicked it at $101. I also traded the other two , UYG and QCOM, but only made pennies.At that point in time I was positioning myself for a rally but shortly thereafter the market started to cave. I finally got stopped out of USO, it was a good contest, but I lost. CCJ from yesterday was a bull today and TIE gave back a bit.

Some names I watched today that showed great relative strength and that I will be looking at tomorrow are PACR,JRJC. I think QCOM is getting close to near term oversold as the selling started to look exhausted today.

I will try to post up some charts later, but it may have to wait until the morning. Hope you all had a great day.

Afternoon Rally?

I'm long the following

DRYS-99
UYG-31.14
QCOM-45.87

tight stops

Sellers Remorse--A Little

QCOM- never go broke taking a profit but I spent a little time thinking I should have did a swingarino on this one. I put up a three year daily chart to give you an idea of the magnitude (imo) of the breakout. I'm a volume junkie it was more than double on Friday. Looks like $47.72 is the next resistance, but once through there it should run. I'M a buyer on slight dips or continuation play.

Sooooooooooo On Fire!!!!!!!!!!!!

I love trading when it works like this. I was lucky enough to have very good positions, literally near the lows of the day in SOLF and QCOM. The volume was sick, just absolutely sick on both. I held them all day and kicked them both at the close. I was very tempted to take them home but didn't want the risk. I may regret it based on the action. USO is giving be fits and my stop is $104. My buddy Johnson had a big winner in MBT today. I caught his call on Twitter and caught it for a a half.

QCOM

QCOM- I put a note on twitter this morning. I'm long a little over $45. Great relative strength today and awesome volume