Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Standoff
JPM just bought the deposits of WAMU and was brokered by the government as reported by the Wall St. Journal. Anyway,today was a beauty and my thinking paid off big time. I am out of all my longs and basically got what I wanted out of this mess. There is still no deal, things are getting sloppy,and it's politics as usual.My biggest winner was STT which just exploded ( check the last half hour but especially the last minute of trading), I was also long JPM, UYG, DDM and SDS. I kept a quarter of my STT position only because of that close.
Tomorrow is a new day and the plot will thicken, but without me. I'll get back in the sandbox when these children figure it out.
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Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Stay Smart
State Street (STT) was a beat yesterday and WFC beat today and raised the dividend. It was up about 30%. In my last post I said that I wanted to see a close at or very near the high on the financials. It was a good close and it makes me a little more confident we can resume things in the morning. I actually kept a little UYG long overnight. A good number from JPM should instill some more confidence tomorrow. This a two xanax, double shot moment at the bar for the shorts. Right now they are panicked and are praying we don't gap up in the morning. I am not all all convinced this is the bottom but I will trade what I see, and right now I see green for the financials. Keep in mind the last two big rallies we gave ALL back the next day. However, it does feel real this time. I made most of my money short energy right after the inventory number. Bids imploded and I killed them. I was short APA,CHK,OIH and XLE. I covered about 30 minutes later with nice gains. It wasn't until after lunch that I started getting long the financials, mainly UYG. All of these names were on the blog last night and this morning and twittered throughout the day.
Don't forget about GOOG after the close, a good number in a better market could make this one get silly again. Amnesia can be a killer, so don't forget how bad things were yesterday, the day before and the day before that. These rallies will lull you then rip your esophagus out if you get complacent. Right now though, it's all about emotion and sentiment and NOT the charts or the fundamentals and short squeezes take more than one day to get resolved. The key for me tomorrow will be the ability to sustain this move. If the longs don't use this financial rally to unload, which they've done every time in the past, then this rally will have legs.
As far as oil goes, I think we get lower prices for he rest f the week. After that it could be onward again. This move down is because of the thinking that China is slowing. We've heard that before and it always turns around and bites us. I worry more about Israel, Iran and the Straits of Hormuz more than a 1% perceived decline in China's growth rate. Right now though the momo is down and I still like the names that I posted last night and this morning.
The sad and ironic thing about today is that that Bernanke and Paulson and Cox will take the credit and they had NOTHING to do with it. A beautiful testament to how free markets actually fix themselves ON THEIR OWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! and they always will. Go America.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Getting Real Hot In Here
Did you hear that? Oh, that was just the sound of me patting myself on the back again. Almost like I had today's paper over the weekend. But I digress. Last nights charts were what it was all about today. STI-2.66 C-.97, UYG-2.15, ZION-5.96, WB-1.70, STT-3.66,BAC-1.52. Today was huge and tomorrow should be even better. I'll be back soon.
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Sunday, July 13, 2008
Financial Crash?

These are the names that have been so good to me over the last six months on the short side. If the financials react poorly to this Freddie/ Fannie drama, I will continue to short them, hopefully to drill bits.




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Saturday, June 28, 2008
Friday, June 27, 2008
About Me
- upsidetrader
- I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.






