Timing Is Everything

Lehman pukes up a $3 billion convertible today. I'm starting to wonder more and more if the Bear Stearns panic had been delayed by a couple of weeks, if it too couldn't have worked out a better deal. I worked at Bear years ago and it's sad to see it go the way that it did. Please don't let Ben Bernanke negotiate the sale of my house if I ever get into a jam.

Covered Some Stuff

I shut down my screens around 2:30 as things were just perfect for me and I covered some shorts. I covered USO GLD and XME and covered half of my PCU position. My average on PCU is around $105 so I have a small cushion. I'm cautious because I don't know what Mr. Market will pull out of his hat in the next couple of days, as today was the end of the month. I'll watch in here and see how it plays out. The USO was a beautiful short as it totally reversed the opening move up, and just collapsed. When oil got near $100 per barrel, which is my trading target on the commodity, i took the profit. 5 points in a couple of trading days is a gift. I think $97-98-110 will be the trading range going forward. XME was good for a short term trade and the volume wasn't there for me to hold overnight. My target on GLD was around $88.50-89 anyway so I was close. I believe all this stuff is going lower but when I am given volatility that goes my way I have to take it. I posted recently that the main catalyst for my "short the commodity space" thinking was the upcoming G-7 meeting in a couple of weeks. The story there, is a bilateral effort to somehow strengthen the dollar. The talk gained a little traction today with Paulson, and I think that will help the oil/commodity sector continue to sell off in coming weeks. Still a traders market in the space I think. I'm all cash and short PCU small.

In conclusion,this is a weird market. The sellers aren't defending their space and the longs don't want to take the hill. Unimpressive at best.

UPDATE-UNWINDING IN FULL SWING!!!!!!!!!

PCU-HITTING LOWS
XME - HITTING LOWS
GLD- HITTING LOWS
USO - MAJOR REVERSAL,HIT NEW LOWS
AG. PLAYS-ALL AT DAY LOWS
SLV- 10 POINTS OFF THE HIGH OF THIS MORNING

WHY CAN'T EVERY DAY BE LIKE TODAY????????

Commodities Starting To Rollover

So far so good for my shorts. Oddly, the dollar is strong but the metals are really starting to roll over, even oil is starting to give up earlier gains and agriculture is getting spanked. Still a long day ahead and it's the last day of the month.

Dump Commodities

That's what Barron's opines this weekend, not that I have ever once listened to anything the paper has to say. Don't get me started, but $5 bucks to read what Abbey Joseph Cohen has to say is $5 too much. The gist of the article however highlights something that I talked about in my March 15 post regarding oil. I posted my oil trader buddy's e-mail, stating that non-commercial entities(dumb money) were very long oil futures. I mentioned that based on this, I was going short USO and caught an 11 point move down in the price of oil in about a week and a half. Bottom line the speculators were gunning the market higher.

To give you an idea of how serious the problem is, ETF'S, commodity pools and mutual funds(non-commercial) account for about 60% of all bullish commodity positions BUT looking at the smart money,farmers and folks who actually use the physical commodity, well, they have a net commercial short position about 30% higher than a previous record. I still don't think the sector has even started to unwind yet

STILL SHORT - USO,GLD,PCU- will look to add XME next week

Lacking Volume

As many of you know I am a volume freak,whether it's regarding individual stocks or the indexes and there has been poor volume this week. This is a note from Alan Farley, a technician I occasionally read.

Volume has been just pathetic this week, with some of the lowest readings of 2008. This, despite all the happy talk after the post-Bear reversal AND positive seasonality from quarterly window dressing.

The SPDR Trust (SPY) has posted 30 sessions this year in which daily volume has exceeded its 60-day moving average. 20 of these days were selloffs, while just 10 were rallies.

Not one trading day of the last six has posted volume (in either direction) higher than the moving average

Last Post

Sorry that didn't work, but that was Spitzers legal team arriving at JFK Airport today.
The law firm of Dickum,Drownum and Taxum

Funny Whacky Stuff

Legal TEAM Arrives to Meet with Spitzer

Short and in Cash

I am not long at all here and I have a feeling next week could fade. I am short PCU,GLD and USO and will hold over the weekend and until further notice. I covered my XHB short for a nice little gain.

The Torch Was Passed to the Solars

I barely traded today, no feel and too choppy. My PCU short started to look very heavy to me today and I am hoping for a move lower soon. GLD looks the same way and may get short there tomorrow or Monday. Oil rallied on a pipeline blowup and it does seem to be range bound in the $100-110 area. Probably not a bad go long go short level to keep an eye on. The financials gave a substantial part of their move back, but the solar stocks popped out of their funk and had a good day. I don't know if we will retest the bottoms of the indices but I do feel the market will head a bit lower in the coming couple of weeks.The pullback so far seems corrective without the massive late day bruisings that we have become used to. It's hard to believe, but second quarter earnings season is almost upon us. Stay well and see you in the morning.

I Lied

I'm at the stage in my life where I feel the need to give back,almost like the girlfriend that wants to save your soul and change you. I did say last night on the blog that I wouldn't post about Cramer anymore but I found the video over on Adam Warners site, (Daily Options Report to the right)he's been on Cramer for longer than me. Kudos to Don Harrold who will now have a home on my favorite links. Do you know that that The Street.com took Cramers rant OFF their website? Frigging amazing!!!!

Can't Take Housing Sector Seriously

XHB got banged up pretty good and went out near the low of the day and the housing sector looks iffy at best. The financials gave some back and Oracle just fell short on earnings and that is taking the stock and the QQQQ down pretty hard here. Oil rallied big and I am still up on my USO short with my stop in place. PCU went up again and I am about a point down on my average short price around $105. I think GLD can muster maybe another point or two to the upside,technically speaking, but will then resume its decline. Still bearish to be honest.

End Of Quarter Window Dressing

The market is down slightly on the durable goods number. The market may hang in until Friday as I would think the hedgies want to show that they are long the right stuff,particularly financials as the month and quarter ends. I think we will have a decent correction soon, probably next week. I think housing and XHB is a short on the recent rally.