Earnings Kickoff

Futures are lower as we digest gains. So far the biggest disgrace by the administration in my opinion is their unwillingness to take back TARP money from those who want to get out from the control of the government. I guess they forgot it's "our" money, but then again if you want full blown socialism I guess you want the ability to tell banks "who" to loan money to. After all, that's how it starts. What an unexpected benefit other than porkulus, for the government to piss away more money. Gotta love it.

Earnings start today with MOS, AA and BBBY report after the close. Alcoa like YHOO is a serial failure when it comes to beating the street, but who knows what the reaction will be, it is such a beaten dog. I expect an earnings bloodbath, but the question is what will the reaction be? It sure would be a great time for the bulls to take some profits.

Retail--Enough Fun For You

Enough is enough, I'll keep you posted.

Playing Offense With Some Defense

I don't know if these names were one day wonders or if there are more good things to come. Certainly they had a nice day today. The charts look pretty nice and volume has certainly been picking up. I wouldn't chase, but they should be on your radar. I traded RTN for a nice gain but really didn't do much else and it was my lowest volume day in a year. Mike Mayo came out negative on the financials and he is a respected name, but Meredith Whitney, who spoke later on CNBC didn't seem as near term negative, although she did say be careful after the financials report earnings. I agree with her thinking and her timing in that regard and think the shorts will be spectacular.

The bulls pulled a stealth rally today and the day goes to the bulls I think, even though the market closed down.

Back and Ready To Rip

I'm back from cactus country and am looking forward to the coming week. There was no newsletter this weekend, so maybe I'll pop a mid-week one out. Anyway here's one to keep an eye on, my charts are working again. Hope you all had a great week.

Happy Friday

This is the new cast of Oceans 11, what would Frank and Dino think? I'm traveling today to Phoenix for the first annual Stocktwits get together hosted by my pal Howard Lindzon. Suns game tonight and some golf tomorrow with some great people in the community.

Speaking of Twitter, it looks like Google is buying them. I probably won't get a post out for the rest of the day, but you never know. Good luck today.

Will All This Even Make a Difference In Three Years?

It's getting nose bleedish out there if you ask me. I'm not trading tomorrow but if I was, I would have been inclined to get a little short the S&P and the financials. Back in the day the mantra was "never bet against the Fed", now you just print money when you bet against the Fed. In this case I have no problem betting against the Fed, the G-20, the IMF and the global economy. The difference now is that I just have more unqualified henchman on a global scale to mock and criticize.

Hank Greenberg, AIG'S former patriarch was on the Hill today belly aching yet again, to anyone who would listen, about the atrocities against AIG. Today it was the big bad bulge bracket firms that made way too much money buying his toxic junk. He claimed their bids were too low and resulted in huge profits for the banks, He went on to say that the reason the banks have had this brief kiss with profitability is greatly due to those trades. I guess he wanted a bidding war? Hank let it go, please, it's over, go play golf. Enough.

Are we on the brink of the death of Capitalism as we have always known it? I'm feeling that we have seriously lost what matters. Is the current administration enabling that end? Here is a quote from the Poul Rasmussen, the former PM of Denmark and the current President of the Party of European Socialists. It was an op-ed that appeared in the Wall St. Journal today:

The job losses, repossessions, uncertainty, fear and misery faced by the people of Europe, the United States and Japan are a terrible stain on the consciences of those bankers and politicians whose doctrine of neo-liberal markets plunged us all into this crash. But the effect of the crisis on the Third World is of an entirely different magnitude. While developed countries scramble to save their economies, half of humanity languishes. For many, this means hunger, disease and death. In Europe, we have been protected from the worst effects of the crisis thanks to welfare states built up over the past 60 years to cushion citizens from the threats posed by the free market. We can all count on state health care, social housing, education, unemployment support and other universal, tax-funded services. The simplistic dictum of more markets and less government -- championed by Reagan, Thatcher and their ideological heirs -- has failed on a momentous scale. In the White House, President Hope has replaced President Tax Cuts for the Rich. As we go into the G-20 meeting in London, even European conservatives such as Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel are calling for a new global financial architecture, better financial regulation and a crackdown on tax havens. The previously unimaginable idea of a "Global New Deal" is suddenly on many people's lips.


This rhetoric is alarming, it's not a surprise but scary nonetheless, and it will be interesting to see where we will be as a country in three or four years. Regulation suffocates capitalism, that I know for sure.

G 20 to the Rescue?

It was just reported that new FASB guidelines will take effect Q2 2009, not retroactive to Jan 1 and definitely not retroactive back to Jan. 2008 as was the chatter in the rumor mill yesterday.

I think it's fair to say that we will know early on what the mood will be in the market today. Not much else to report yet so let's watch the headlines. Good luck today.

Will Mark To Market Changes Save the Day?

Timbo, doing his best Maxwell Smart was overheard saying here "I missed saving the world economy by this much." The guy he's talking to is on his sixth martini and is just wondering when the hookers arrive.

I just returned home from running around, but I just heard Bob Froelich on Kudlow practically guarantee the market will be up at least 500 points tomorrow because mark to market will reversed. I'll be on the hunt for the clip later. I've seen Froelich before and he's only been wrong everyday for the last 8000 points, so when he' wrong again you can be sure that I will try my best to call him on it in my own little piece of the blogisphere, if he's right---I'll bury the story. Just following the N.Y. Times approach. Is there a day care for perma- bulls? Is it in the green room at CNBC? Froelich, Reilly, they all get dragged out on stage on every up day, they are always wrong and embarrassed and hide with their tails between their legs, but where do they go? Pundit Purgatory? I really haven't watched CNBC in about two weeks, I'd much prefer to be water boarded and sleep deprived while listening to Metallica at max decibels. Horrendous, simply horrendous.

Results from G-20 start rolling in around 9am our time and more at 10am tomorrow. I don't know what the market will do on a change in mark to market, but if they don't change it, be prepared for some pain.

MOS and CREE rocked today, I'll try for some charts in a bit, if not we'll hit em' in the morning.

Celgene

This is a 3 year chart of CELG. It is now pennies away from the low made way back in the day. We are in a market that is unforgiving if you are wrong. It will be one to watch as a short on any bounce. My bud Brian nailed this yesterday.

G-20

Unfortunately this is the attitude of the masses across the pond. Denial isn't just a river in Egypt. I guess they don't realize that almost every country is practically on the brink, especially those with massive unsecured loans to Eastern Europe. Countries like Sweden, Switzerland and the U.K. have huge chunks of their GDP in loans to Eastern Europe, Austria alone has 70% of their GDP in loans there. What happens when they default? It's coming. The housing boom in countries like Italy and Ireland makes the U.S. boom look like a teeny tiny blip. The underpinnings that are collapsing in that area are coming home to roost, and in a huge way.

In my opinion the G-20 is like the United Nations but with checkbooks, equally inept and irrelevant. George Soros, whether you agree with him or not, said the other day that if things don't work out at G-20 we will fall into a Depression. Think he's short?

Lot's of opinions for sure on this topic, the market will be the final arbiter.

GM and Chrysler to Go Bankrupt

Obama has determined that the best way to go is for GM and Chrysler to rollover and do a prepackaged bankruptcy. At least he was thoughtful enough to put it in a package, bow and all. This is 48 hours after he decided to give GM 60 "more" days to avoid the inevitible disaster. I heard they were an Escalade short of solvency. With the government now being in full control, Im sure they will be using Barnet Frank's "ownership" leverage to the fullest extent. Can't wait to drive my rubix cube with wheels on my next long trip.

If you actually purchased GM in a "die and hold" account, it is now a good time to slowly remove the barrel of the revolver from your mouth. Hey there's always Citi to get even.

The Churn Begins

It's the last day of the first quarter today and I'm wondering if some scattered Pollyanna's are trying to get some last licks in as they get ready for their perceived move back to 14,000? Over 90% of mutual funds lost money in 2009 and these are the same twits with blank checks making buy side decisions right here. I chuckle as I sharpen my bayonet and clean my bazooka.

Roubini was back on he tube and is still a bear, nothing but a bear market rally in his opinion and he thinks we still have another 30% to go on the downside for the S&P. He thinks China is ready for a "hard landing" too. Goldman is at 8% growth for China this year, he is at 5%, way under consensus. He's been right-they've been wrong so I know where my money is.

I'm ready for more shorts in the financials and I am waiting and hoping for another rally to re-enter shorts, my regret is that I didn't take more advantage of the last run up, I attribute it to short seller exhaustion on my part. I'm watching ZION and STI as possible "fails" going forward, if I'm right we could see low single digits on both so stay tuned.

Failure

Oil was crushed as well as materials, agriculture and financials. Just a bad day all around. The bulls had every opportunity to reverse things but chose not to. It was more of a strike by the buyers and in my opinion could have been worse.

Net on the day the Dow was down 254.16 to 7522, the S&P 500 28.41 to 787.53, and the Nasdaq 100 down 30.66 to 1220.88. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) lost 10.52 to 229.45.

The technicals were horrendous. Advance-declines were about 9 to 1 negative on New York and about 3 to 1 negative on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was about 20 to 1 negative on New York on total volume of about 1 1/2 billion. Nasdaq traded just over 2 billion and had about a 6 to 1 negative volume ratio.

George Soros, famous for breaking the pound single handidly thinks the coming G-20 meeting is our last chance to get things right, and says if it isn't successful our situation will end in crisis and depression. More here from Stockjockey.

I had a meeting early and wrapped up things around 2PM. I was short SPG, STI and ZION, my one long was DLTR, but it made its move after I left, the chart looks good there. See you later and hope you were short something today.