Morning Look

Copper is hitting all time highs which is good for PCU and FCX in pre market. I think we are do for a giveback in the market this week and will be looking at more shorts than longs. YHOO is getting crushed as expected and MSFT is up about a buck. The financials could come in a bit this week and it is a light week for economic data. I will be watching oil for any signs of a breakdown. A couple names I will be watching today:

EJ,BOOM(possible bounce candidate) CHNR(over 23.50 on volume)SKF(if financials come in)PCU(on pullbacks)

Some Charts To Have On Radar

Here are some charts that I will be watching this week. There is a brief comment on each one. Please click on the chart to enlarge

Iron Man and a Couple of Blogs

I saw Iron Man with Upside Jr. Not bad. I have been running all weekend and hope to get to some thoughts and or charts later. In the meantime...........

A couple of blogs I discovered that I think you will find interesting. HeadlineCharts is more technically oriented and Wall Street Fighter is a bit more irreverent and funny.

A Quick Peek For Next Week

What I Don't Like

YHOO
BA
USO
C
The Euro

What I Like

MSFT
The Dollar

Mr. Softee Pulls Yahoo Bid

What a nice trade long MSFT short YHOO would have been. There were some pretty nice option strategies on this outcome that I chose to ignore. Well, can't get them all. The street hated this deal from day one. MSFT is free to move higher now and YHOO is free to-----freefall.

Opposite Day

OK, the commodities are running on a STRONG dollar and the financials are trading lower. Go figure. Gotta love the insanity

Futures Higher

I am watching the dollar here as it really is the benchmark for me in the stocks I like to short. The financials look like they are going to extend yesterdays gains and everybody seems giddy this morning. I don't really trust the giddiness and will be watching carefully for opportunities long or short. Gold and oil are getting a slight bounce here this morning and we will see if the move can stick. I will be looking to reload on the short side on rallies.

A couple of names I am watching that have been acting very well are:

JRJC- right here looks good as long as volume is strong

EJ-posted yesterday ,and a move over the mid 18's could set it on fire

I won't chase financials here

Jobs Number Tomorrow

It was a phenomenal day as commodities crashed all around me. I was short the usual suspects, USO and GLD. I covered both at great prices. The jobs # is in the morning so I wanted to be flat. There are some groups that are getting oversold and some that are getting overbought. Tomorrow is another day. I'll be back early in the morning. Good night all.

Sometimes You Just Get It Right

my saturday post

Saturday, April 26, 2008

The Dollar And Interest Rates

One of two things happen with the fed on Wednesday, a 25 basis point cut or no cut at all. My bet is 25 but the bigger picture to me is not the cut or how much but how the market is going to react. It will probably be the last cut for a very long time at least until-they start raising rates again? My call here is that it will be the beginning of the rally in the dollar and an end, at least for now,in the rally in commodity prices. The money flow by institutions is already showing a big move into financials and I think technology will be next. In any case I am watching these sectors for shorting opportunities in the coming weeks:
OIL
GOLD
COPPER
SILVER
FERTILIZERS

I will try and give specific recommendations on how I will play these sectors on the short side over the weekend. I still believe the market is overbought and we could easily pull back 500 points by way of a correction, but we will have to watch how it plays out.

EJ

EJ-- mentioned the other day, starting to stir,keep it on radar

OK------- Now It's A Rotation

GETTING SOLD- COMMODITIES,SOLAR

GETTING BOUGHT- TECHNOLOGY, FINANCIALS

XLF- BREAKING OUT

ALL IN AGAIN

I was a tad early on my cover but am all in on my shorts in USO and GLD

Yesterday

There was no post last night as Upside Jr. got nailed in the eye with a fast ball last night and I spent three hours in the emergency room. He is totally fine. I had a bit of sellers remorse yesterday after I covered my shorts in the oils and gold. It twas a knee jerk reaction on my part, but I have to go with what the tape gives me. I think now that all the drama from yesterday has subsided, I can back to thinking strait. I still do like this group short, especially gold and oil and it would not be out of character for me to initiate short positions again today. I truly think Bernanke is in lala land with his very nonchalant view of inflation. I know the Fed doesn't include oil or food prices into their inflation number but if you drive a car or eat a slice of pizza you are being max squeezed.

Exxon reported earnings that were short and the stock is down 2.50 % in pre market. Could this be a catalyst to resume the move down in oil? I hope so. DUG could be interesting today as XOM is a decent componant of thet etf. DUG would have acted better yesterday if not for the strong performance in XOM which clearly bucked the trend.

The more I think about it I think I will be getting short some GLD and USO. They are acting very weak in pre market. I'll be on Twitter if I see anything hot. Good luck today