I'M SHORT EVERYTHING COMMODITY

It was a phenomenal day at Upside Headquarters. I'm on record for weeks now hoping for a commodity reversal and a dollar rally. Today the dollar hit a 3 week high and with the Fed's one and done (or none and done) it just adds fuel to the fire. Last nights late post gave you a handle on what I was looking at today and I've been giving real time reports on twitter on the right side of the blog for the last several days. Take a look at the last two charts I posted today on GLD and DZZ. Gold looks to be cracking and I would love a volume thrust down tomorrow to help ice the cake. Oil is starting to move lower on a day when two different oil ministers said two different things, One of them said there was probably $30 a share of speculation in a barrel of oil and the other one stated that with the weak dollar oil could see $200 by year end. Go figure. The fertilizers stocks are in free fall and what looks to be a rotation is in full swing. Or is it just a sharp correction and a phenomenal buying opportunity? Probably a bit of both as there will be some beautiful long side snap back rallies in the ferts.

Watch gold and oil tomorrow as these groups go big on both the upside and downside. I am short USO and I am long DUG and DZZ and I took both of them home. I have a cushion as I made excellent entries today. The XME got torched today as well as names like PCU and FCX.

On the tech front I caught RIMM on a couple of beautiful breakouts. It popped on very impressive volume. I almost took it home but didn't want to push my luck. I do believe the stock is ready to run and I'm a guy that doesn't really trade the name much.

I will be back later with some ideas for tomorrow but won't do much of anything until after the Fed. Don't forget the China stocks, as there are some nice set ups developing there.

MINI RANT- it's now official. Dennis Kneale in my view has been passed the obnoxiousness torch from Cramer. Fox must be partying naked that they traded that guy. Reminds me of Tom Seaver for Jim Fregosi.
Also why does Fast Money have a person like Karen Finerman on a show like FAST money. Nice enough gal, but she looks absolutely clueless on a daily basis and has given us names like MSFT and MO. Wow,amazing value added. I guess anybody can get 2 and 20 at a hedge fund.

Morning Look and DZZ

There is a ton of earnings,economic data, and Fed speak this week. I still think this "last cut" scenario by the Fed can only help make my case for a stronger dollar, which in turn is lousy for commodities. DZZ is the double short gold etf that I will be playing.

Late Post

Just got out of a second meeting and will post in more detail in the morning. All my charts and tools are on my other laptop. I will be watching the DOLLAR for the rest of the week as the Fed will probably make its final cut. Looking at these scenarios though depending on how things unravel.

DZZ -double short gold etf
USO- short
DUG-
SRS-I just still hate housing -double short

We Could Knock Out Dow and S&p Resistance Here

Everything looks higher led by finacials and the GOOG news. In pre market the ag stocks look weak, interesting to see if they join the rally later. If not MOO short could be interesting again. The dollar is stronger here and I am looking at a possible USO short, long DUG and long DZZ (double short gold etf) Good luck.