Retail--Enough Fun For You

Enough is enough, I'll keep you posted.

What Will Lead This Market Higher?

Some Watchlist Names

40.3%

That's the decline in the S&P 500 so far this year so, so if you bought an index fund 51 and a half weeks ago from Mr, Bogle at Vanguard you need over 60% just to get even. Keep me posted on how that works out. If you are over 65 and had 500k saved up for retirement you now have about 300k. You get the picture.

I've shorted RTH twice this year with phenomenal results and I do believe the group is destined for a retest with in the next several months so keep an eye on it if you wish. Many feel the group has bottomed but I think it is just a pause before it takes a further bruising. I base this opinion on a further deterioration in unemployment, and the fact that folks just have way less wealth. Challenger is predicting another one million layoffs in 09,so you tell me if that 70 inch plasma is going up next to that handsome moose head.

Third-quarter GDP data is due out Tuesday, as well as consumer sentiment data, new home sales and existing home sales data. I will probably fool around until early afternoon today but need to nail down some Christmas gifts, I thought I would try and get it done early this year.

Morning Thoughts

Yesterday I was long SMN ( double short basic materials) and took a 7% trade. I sold about 75% but I am carrying the balance. I will probably add today. I posted on twitter yesterday that this was one to watch indeed as it traded as high as $107 on Friday. If they take this group to the low post again this one could do very well.

Also RTH (retail holders) I will be looking to add to on the short side. I've been short from $95 and covered a bunch . A couple of weeks ago I said I thought it would hit $60. My opinion hasn't changed in that regard.

RTH

RTH

A you know I am short RTH in the long term account at $95. My long term short account is the place where stocks go to die. As I have said many times on this blog,I think the consumer is dead, fried,cooked, done. It's not to late.

Posted by upsidetrader at 6:00 PM PERMALINK 0 comments Links to this post

RTH

A you know I am short RTH in the long term account at $95. My long term short account is the place where stocks go to die. As I have said many times on this blog,I think the consumer is dead, fried,cooked, done. It's not to late.

BROKEN !!!!!!!!!!!!

OK, so I had a momentary lapse of sanity yesterday when I posted the possibility of Devine Intervention to firm the greenback and hence have oil collapse and hence have the market rally. You all know there has been a heat wave on the east coast.It can still happen but odds are that the market has already made up its mind on where it wants to go. When am I going to realize that I'm in my happiest place (and most profitable) when I'm short.

The XLF closed 9 cents off the March low and will probably breach that in the morning. 52 week lows were being hit with reckless abandon in the last 20 minutes of trading and oil continues its wicked ways. The SPX closed at the lows and DJI was right there. The NAZZ jumped in the pool and gave up the ghost as well. Lehman became unhinged at the close and now you will start to hear every rumor possible regarding its imminent demise.

Here are my shorts:

AA-new short
SDS (long) double short S&P
DXD (long) double short DJIA
AG- was short all day and added in last hour
RTH- been short a couple of weeks
$NDX-july 1950 puts
TWM -(long) ulta short Russel 2000

Yes, I'm a little bearish. If it doesn't work it's been really nice knowing you.

Misery For The Longs

I was done trading for the most part by 10am as I caught the only real move in CSIQ and FSLR on the long side. It hit my targets and I just walked away. They didn't do much the rest of the day which was odd considering oil continued to go up ten points I was short a substantial position in UYG and also added size to my RTH short. The consumer is dead to me even more now. I'm just pissed I bought into that medium volume short covering head fake yesterday. I thought the market might rally on a moderately bad number considering yesterdays bullish sentiment, but when I saw the actual number, the only thing I wanted to do was be short and maybe own some solar to play off oil. It all worked out.

Israel may knock out Iran, unemployment stinks, we are in the throws off massive stagflation, commodities are soaring,banks are collapsing (city national in Cleveland has huge issues) the dollar continues to fall, GM can't sell a car and on and on and ..................................................... I don't see any catalysts, do you? I want to kill em again next week, so off to see some charts. Hope everybody hung in there today.

Three Day Weekend

Oil is up and futures are slightly lower. Fridays are usually bullish for oil but we are in strange times so we will just have to see how it plays today. Looking at a potential DUG long and an XOM short soon. I mentioned a few posts ago that I was getting ready for a short of retail.I am now short RTH(retail holders) around $96. I will stay short for a while on this one. I still believe the consumer is fried.

The solars were toast yesterday and STP couldn't run on a good number. SOLF down $5 on a Goldman downgrade. They probably need to back and fill,but if oil rolls over they do have huge room on the downside.