Radar

USO is starting to trade like FSLR. That means it's either a bubble of biblical proportions or it truly is going to continue its parabolic move. In either event I am short. Stocks I may trade today:

SOLF
RCH
CHDX
FCX
ADBE
STP

Not Much Action

I caught some trades in the morning with CHNR long and a little Citibank short but had difficulty trading EJ. That stock always starts strong and then gives back. I have it on my radar because one day I will reign victorious.It really does look like it wants to go, maybe with a better market.The financials were a bit weak as I thought and I am watching the next move out of that group. Oil and commodities just expoloded and it goes to show you what is hated one moment, is loved the next. PCU and FCX were beautiful, but they gapped up and I didn't feel comfortable with any of the entries that they gave me. I'll check in later.

Morning Look

Copper is hitting all time highs which is good for PCU and FCX in pre market. I think we are do for a giveback in the market this week and will be looking at more shorts than longs. YHOO is getting crushed as expected and MSFT is up about a buck. The financials could come in a bit this week and it is a light week for economic data. I will be watching oil for any signs of a breakdown. A couple names I will be watching today:

EJ,BOOM(possible bounce candidate) CHNR(over 23.50 on volume)SKF(if financials come in)PCU(on pullbacks)

I'M SHORT EVERYTHING COMMODITY

It was a phenomenal day at Upside Headquarters. I'm on record for weeks now hoping for a commodity reversal and a dollar rally. Today the dollar hit a 3 week high and with the Fed's one and done (or none and done) it just adds fuel to the fire. Last nights late post gave you a handle on what I was looking at today and I've been giving real time reports on twitter on the right side of the blog for the last several days. Take a look at the last two charts I posted today on GLD and DZZ. Gold looks to be cracking and I would love a volume thrust down tomorrow to help ice the cake. Oil is starting to move lower on a day when two different oil ministers said two different things, One of them said there was probably $30 a share of speculation in a barrel of oil and the other one stated that with the weak dollar oil could see $200 by year end. Go figure. The fertilizers stocks are in free fall and what looks to be a rotation is in full swing. Or is it just a sharp correction and a phenomenal buying opportunity? Probably a bit of both as there will be some beautiful long side snap back rallies in the ferts.

Watch gold and oil tomorrow as these groups go big on both the upside and downside. I am short USO and I am long DUG and DZZ and I took both of them home. I have a cushion as I made excellent entries today. The XME got torched today as well as names like PCU and FCX.

On the tech front I caught RIMM on a couple of beautiful breakouts. It popped on very impressive volume. I almost took it home but didn't want to push my luck. I do believe the stock is ready to run and I'm a guy that doesn't really trade the name much.

I will be back later with some ideas for tomorrow but won't do much of anything until after the Fed. Don't forget the China stocks, as there are some nice set ups developing there.

MINI RANT- it's now official. Dennis Kneale in my view has been passed the obnoxiousness torch from Cramer. Fox must be partying naked that they traded that guy. Reminds me of Tom Seaver for Jim Fregosi.
Also why does Fast Money have a person like Karen Finerman on a show like FAST money. Nice enough gal, but she looks absolutely clueless on a daily basis and has given us names like MSFT and MO. Wow,amazing value added. I guess anybody can get 2 and 20 at a hedge fund.

A Stock Pickers Day

I did well today with my own four horseman that I mentioned in the morning blog. FCX and PCU gapped a bit but I caught some entries mid morning. POT was a monster even though the rest of the group chopped and USO was in a nice upward trend until about 2 pm. Has anyone checked out BLK? It's down about 30 points from my original short two weeks ago. Wish I held that one longer.

AAPL and RIMM got knocked around and the chips got spanked because of the TXN report yesterday. BRCM is up a buck in the after market on a decent number. The financials dragged all day and I may take a look at BAC over the next few days for a trade. The stock yields about 7% here and I think that should give some decent protection on the downside, even for a day or short term trade.

If this dollar of ours can catch any king of sustained rally it will be party time shorting oil, gold and all the other fun stuff, In the meantime, shippers exploded with DRYS and EXM cayching some major short covering.

Staying Very Short The Following

XME,GLD,USO

With "DELEVERAGING" fast becoming the new buzzword it looks like it's time to piggyback the trend. What does that mean? Stay short commodities, in my opinion the move down has just started. There was talk today that Lehman picked up a bunch of Bear Stearns business and some prime brokerage was a part of it. Prime brokerage is the part of the business that for a big part, services hedge funds. Hedge funds crave leverage ( Carlyle Group received $35 for every dollar they had under management) That ended in bankrupcy this week. The conversation that Lehman had with hedge funds today, only guessing,went something like this, "we'll do business with you but in this environment the leverage we will give you is going to be much less than what your used to." When your prime broker has this conversation with you, one of the options is to start selling and reducing exposure, especially your winners, you know the positions you owned on 8 to leverage. That is one of the reasons for the unwinding in commodities today and I really feel it has only just begun. Just look at PCU and FCX today.

Unwinding of sectors can be very profitable if you are short. Just look at the dry shippers and the solar space in the last 2 months

Rant

Just wondering if the analyst that went to a strong buy at Merrill last week on PCU and FCX a combined 15 points ago was called into his superiors office today. Where is the freaking accountability. I posted my original rant last week when hearing this recommendation and went short XME for 5 points. I screw up alot but it's because of me. These analysts have jobs because the bulge brackets have to have them. The good ones for the most part are at hedgies making FU money and you will never hear what they are saying or doing. See you guys tomorrow and be careful. And don't forget to look both ways.

MEDIC !!!!!!!!!!!!!

Get the gurney while you're at it. New 52 week low on S&P and NAZZ. We lost the all important 1310 level on S&P. We could hit the January lows soon, maybe even tomorrow on the DJIA. The intra day low for the DJIA was about 11,634 back on January 22. I don't even think a good number tomorrow will save us. The market has made up its mind today and it wants to go lower. The only up stock on my screen was COIN and what a stock that really is. The short etf's are still my best friends in here. Today I had some DXD. I was looking late in the afternoon for a break of 12100 as that is what appeared to be support in the afternoon. Well it cracked it finally, and the selling was aggressive. The indices went out, at, or near the lows which is never technically healthy. If you're short you are lucky and for my money I'd stay that way.

On another note of conventional Wall St. thinking, Merrill came out with buys on the mining stocks today (PCU,FCX) etc,, Have they been living in a cave? Where were they on PCU back in March 2007 at $62. We had a global growth story back then didn't we? I mentioned XME as a potential short a couple of days ago and I will stand by my thinking over a 26 year old bull market genius.

Yea, I feel dark today.

Commodities are Ripping

FCX,PCU and the gang are ripping higher. Wouldn't want to short them but I would hate myself in the morning if I bought them. I scaled out of PAAS and SLW today because they need a rest. As far as the agricultural group I shorted MOO today which is the ag. etf. I took that one home with me which I haven't done in a while. Sure there is food inflation and these guys are trading like Intel in the bubble but I'm making a bet they retrace here. I never short strength but they look toppy. I won't give the trade time to prove me wrong. I will be back later with more rivoting insight.