Am I Really Posting This ?

Someone please tell me when I thought a financial may be a long. Maybe never? I started this blog in January and I've been short since then, so I guess I never have. I shorted this one for about 15 points back in mid April which is indicated by the yellow arrows, unfortunately, I missed the really big move down a few weeks later because I probably moved on to other things. Anyway, I'm not too excited yet, and it would take a break through $231.20 on much better volume. The financials need to continue the move up, which I highly doubt will happen, and it will need much more volume. Just keep it on your watch lists, just in case. Mets 3 Marlins 0 in the fifth, Perez pitching another gem.

A Stock Pickers Day

I did well today with my own four horseman that I mentioned in the morning blog. FCX and PCU gapped a bit but I caught some entries mid morning. POT was a monster even though the rest of the group chopped and USO was in a nice upward trend until about 2 pm. Has anyone checked out BLK? It's down about 30 points from my original short two weeks ago. Wish I held that one longer.

AAPL and RIMM got knocked around and the chips got spanked because of the TXN report yesterday. BRCM is up a buck in the after market on a decent number. The financials dragged all day and I may take a look at BAC over the next few days for a trade. The stock yields about 7% here and I think that should give some decent protection on the downside, even for a day or short term trade.

If this dollar of ours can catch any king of sustained rally it will be party time shorting oil, gold and all the other fun stuff, In the meantime, shippers exploded with DRYS and EXM cayching some major short covering.

CPI in Line and Futures Are Up

So far so good but we will see if it holds. BLK reported and the stock is down about $4 in pre market tarding. So far the financials are up, and you guessed it the ag. stocks are flying pre open. I will be posting some thoughts and trades on Twitter as the day develops.

INTEL

Well they matched the 25 cent # and guidance was in line. This should take the market out of the current trading range. Thank God above. The last couple of days was like watching a bridge rust. I need movement or I get cranky. If IBM can come through it could help change the tone. The INTC number was not a high hurdle to meet, but at least they didn't fall short. Merrill Lynch reports Thursday before the close and that will be a number I will also be watching.I think John Thaine is too smart to upset the apple cart so I'm guessing there won't be a big surprise there.

China's GDP is being reported tonight and it is a number to watch for the commodity sector. A weak number there could take the shine of the apple. Everybody is talking about how they are paying close to $4 bucks a barrel for gasoline. I'm paying about $ 3.10 on the east coast. If you are paying $4 let me know where you live, I'm curious what parts of the country are getting hosed out there.

Mirant has worked out to be a great two day trade and I got stopped out on my MOO short at my stop price of $60 for a two point loss but that was offset by my AA short cover yesterday for a 3 point profit. I was short that MOO for a week at $ 58, now watch the group fall apart.LOL.

For anyone that is still short BLK (ARE YOU CRAZY?) their eps come out before the market opens in the morning.

BLK

BLK -this was a phenomenal short for me last week. Earnings are out this week so keep in on the radar. It went out near the low of the day on Friday and just had a miserable week.

GE The Terminal EPS Sandbagger

If Steve Jobs was a sand bagger like GE, Apple stock would be $700 on continuous upside surprises. GE has always gotten away with it, but not this time.It's easy to beat when you sandbag earnings, really.Which makes the case that the economy is really bad. If GE was the "tell" which I agree that it was, then beware of other companies that fall short in the coming weeks. The stage was set today as the market unmercifully sold the stock down. Where are these blue bloods on CNBC that tell you to buy these kinds of stocks because of the dividend. Well, I do like the yield today better than I did yesterday. If you are Intel or IBM and you fall short next week expect the worse. The market told you today what its tolerance is. If I was a GE analyst I would feel deceived here.
Technically we broke some levels today by violating 20 and 50 day moving averages. It's days like today that certainly encourage investors to wait before they jump in and buy. I guess the positive today, was that volume was once again light. My personal feel here is that we will be in a range and maybe even go much lower until earnings for the second quarter are over. If we do go much lower here I don't think it will be because of the financial or credit markets. I think that story for the most part has been told. Maybe a few more hiccups but nothing major. I think we go lower this time because of lousy earnings and the fact that we are in a recession. The question will start to become, how bad is the recession? I'm still waiting for credit cards and auto loans to rear its ugly head at one point over the next several months. As negative as I may sound I am still closet bullish because the Fed will do whatever it has to do to save the world, but right in here I think it will be tough to say the least. Real tough.
I had a phenomenal week being short BLK and GRMN which have been closed and I am still open short MOO and AA. I posted about MOO before and the farmer stocks hung in real tough today. Have a great evening.

BLK

I just covered for a $13 point gain on the short side. Great work if you can get it. I think it goes lower but I'm not crazy.

BLK

Blackrock, which I shorted a couple of days ago at $222.50 got downgraded by Goldman Sachs and Wachovia this morning. The stock is showing down $7 points in pre market although that may not hold. If I can grab 10 points in this one I will take it. Not bad.

Half Full Or Half Empty

The market is in that zone right now, really. I'm looking at a ton of charts here and depending on your leaning, can be viewed in different ways. If you are a bull, a chart can look one way and a bear would look at it the other way. I like to play Switzerland. A bull may look at a chart that is ready to make a break out, but a bear could look at that same chart as a potential double or triple top. Sentiment takes huge part in how I look at things. This is the type of market where failed breakouts abound so you have to careful. It is also becoming a temperamental and choppy market in here. I put out BLK as a short near the opening at around 122 and it immediately traded down 5 points, the stock went back to flat and closed down about 3. Kooky behavior to say the least. I am holding as I think the financials have a little ground to give back. The chart of XBD, the broker dealer index looks as if it could head lower. I'd rather pay lower than $180 for GS if I can. Too expensive based on this economy right now. Scary when you think the only "go to" bank the Fed had for the Bear Stearns bailout was JP Morgan. Is that a testament to how bad our banking system really is? Makes you feel like it's a house of cards.

So much for the China market rocking because of the olympics. What a friggin mess that is turning out to be. If anything, it's drawing attention to what a miserable existence it is over there. I think FXI is starting a rollover here.

Of course the market will be up 500 points tomorrow but this is just what I think about in the shower.

Still short MOO,BLK,AA

BLK

I'm short here at $221.25 with a $227 stop.

Just Boring

Just uninspiring and dull. Just taking it one day at a time and waiting for what the market does next. I covered GRMN for about 5 points. Just a beauty. I think BLK will be a setup for tomorrow as it went up on the nonsense WM euphoria today. I'm still short MOO and AA. See you tomorrow morning.

Light Volume

The last time the Russell 2000 had volume this weak was on Christmas Eve. That's pathetic if you are a bull. I think we are going lower soon. Two names I am looking to short are:

AA

BLK

Sorry about the light posts the last couple of days but I've been crazy busy. See you tomorrow.