Victory

The greenback exploded this week and that was the catalyst for the implosion in commodities. This mornings blog was pretty right on with regard to how to play the move. I was short all the names on that list as well as long the UAUA which gave some good opportunities to get long. I've been trading "around " the agriculture stocks, both long and short this week but I'm glad I am still short AGA, which is the double short ag, etf which I have had since Monday.

I really missed the long side move in technology this week as I was caught up in the commodity sector. I will be looking for opportunities over the weekend in that space. This commodity money has to go somewhere and I think that group will be home sweet home for a while. The financials are way over bought and I will be looking for shorts there for next week.

Charts that lightly breached support today were APA and MEE. Absent a recovery rally, these two look destined for the graveyard as well as many others that I will post this weekend. I posted their charts last night, check them out. Also, I posted a bunch of charts last night stating that if we are to start a new bull run, those stocks on the list had to fail. Well,they all failed pretty well today and I hope you were able to take advantage.

Right now, the theme is STRONG DOLLAR AND SELL COMMODITIES. Don't be crazy short though, wait for set ups, they will have a snap back rally, and you won't want to get caught.

I am grabbing my honey and a beer and going out to dinner. Check you later.

Lets Review, Shall We???

ICE down $10 and XOM down $3, CF down $13(twittered), AGA up $2.73, ESV down $5.50(twittered early)DRYS down $6.77 (twittered). Also some XME and JRCC short. sorry, can't get em all out. I was also short MOS for about four points. I am trying my best to be as interactive as possible here. Do your own due dilly but these continue to be the names and sectors that are working for me.

These were all my long/shorts today, all short actually, except for AGA which I posted yesterday and am holding overnight. They were on the blog either through a post over the weekend, or a twitter and post this morning. I hope you guys had a chance to grab a few names. Let me know how you did? I'd like to think these ideas are helping.

If I wasn't just short the commodity sector I would have thought the market was down 300 points, because they absolutely CRUUUUUUUSHED the sector. That's why I kept AGA overnight. This reminds me of the early days on the fianacials when everybody who was long had that "uh-oh" moment and just said get me the hell out. It had that kind of feel, and these names aren't coming back anytime soon.

I really though the financials would implode as they opened very soft after Meredith Whitney made negative comments about the sector on CNBC this morning. I still think there will be more pain there and will be watching the group carefully for opportunistic shorting set ups. Thain just said "if the world stays the same, banks won't have to raise more capital". First off ,the man is a liar, and when does the world ever stay the same?

Coal, steel, ags and oil. Look out below, but also watch for the vicious upside bounce that's coming.

Two Nice Set Ups

I posted the AGA last Sunday as a double short on the ag. sector. It' s an impossible stock to day trade, because of liquidity reasons and you can drive a Hummer through the spread, but it is a great name if you are a longer term bear on the group. I may take some down and hold for a bit as I still don't like the way the group is acting (see archives for charts on MOS and POT)

As far as XOM goes,well it just looks weak. If oil comes in a little more the big boys could really continue to run from this name.

DILUTION

I posted the two poster children for dilution and broken revenue models, WM, WB over the weekend and said there was more to come. Well, Merrill Lynch announced after the close that they are unloading $30 billion in toxic mortgages at a huge discount and issuing $8.5 BILLION in new common stock. By contract ,they have to issue payments to the assho......, I mean shareholders that swallowed the last raise at higher prices. The stock was initially pounded in the after market but recovered a little. I remember when Wachovia did this a few months ago, the stock initially recovered and then dropped more than 50%. What a mess. If you are a long term investor 2-5 years you may have a shot, right now--they are nothing but shorts.

LLTC never caught the breakdown today but no harm done there. UYG and QID were big winners for me as I held them through the weekend and covered. UYG is a short for the new readers. I only short UYG when I am bearish on the financials. MOS posted after the close and I don't think it lit anything on fire, pretty muted action though. I watched that AGA trade today, and it's about as liquid as a CD so be careful, an OK longer hold but not day tradeable until it gets more liquid.

A New One--AGA

You know how I love my double short anythings. I just found this double short etn today for the agricultural sector. This is another short arrow for my quiver and although I would prefer shorting a POT or MOS for liquidity purposes, this is a nice supplement as well as a good stock to watch as an indicator. I can't believe I missed this one and I have no problem getting long this if I feel there is more pain in the sector. I will post some charts in a bit to highlight what could be happening in this sector