remember this one?

Lets Review, Shall We???

ICE down $10 and XOM down $3, CF down $13(twittered), AGA up $2.73, ESV down $5.50(twittered early)DRYS down $6.77 (twittered). Also some XME and JRCC short. sorry, can't get em all out. I was also short MOS for about four points. I am trying my best to be as interactive as possible here. Do your own due dilly but these continue to be the names and sectors that are working for me.

These were all my long/shorts today, all short actually, except for AGA which I posted yesterday and am holding overnight. They were on the blog either through a post over the weekend, or a twitter and post this morning. I hope you guys had a chance to grab a few names. Let me know how you did? I'd like to think these ideas are helping.

If I wasn't just short the commodity sector I would have thought the market was down 300 points, because they absolutely CRUUUUUUUSHED the sector. That's why I kept AGA overnight. This reminds me of the early days on the fianacials when everybody who was long had that "uh-oh" moment and just said get me the hell out. It had that kind of feel, and these names aren't coming back anytime soon.

I really though the financials would implode as they opened very soft after Meredith Whitney made negative comments about the sector on CNBC this morning. I still think there will be more pain there and will be watching the group carefully for opportunistic shorting set ups. Thain just said "if the world stays the same, banks won't have to raise more capital". First off ,the man is a liar, and when does the world ever stay the same?

Coal, steel, ags and oil. Look out below, but also watch for the vicious upside bounce that's coming.

Just An Idea On A Rainy Day

For more on chart patterns check here. Consensus estimate is $1.18

ICE

I posted ICE as a short on July 1. That was twenty points in two weeks in case your mind was wandering. I am posting the chart again because it has formed a bearish flag or pennant. It still has room to go lower.

So, We Can't Blame Oil

The only bottom we are going to see anytime soon is the one on the left. I always loved Vanessa. Oil has been cooperating nicely, and this market can't get any mojo whatsoever, and if you throw out yesterdays pathetic attempt to rally, we look like we want to crash and make new lows. I'm glad I didn't drink the Kool Aide as I posted after the close yesterday. This is a sick market and it proves the pundits wrong again. It's really not ALL about oil. We are in a global recession and our financial system is close to flatline. This is all good though, very good, and does get us closer to a bottom. The bottom could be 10,000 on the Dow though. I made about 4 points on CLF short, 6 points on X short, 5 points on MA short, 3 points on ICE short, and about 7 points on SRS long. Banner day.We are going a lot lower kids. I will be back in a bit.

Bear Market Rallies Are Wicked

We were heading down the tubes until around 3pm and the market decided to rally. Unfortunately it was short lived and it couldn't hold on. The financials are a complete mess and I did very well shorting PRU. If the financials go lower and I bet they do,this one could free fall further. A tell for me was watching GS lose its underpinnings, I may post a chart later on GS as one to watch as a short. I shorted some LEH for a small gain after the story hit that they had been shut down from trading oil. I never trade news but this was how BSC started and it ended it up being true. With BSC ,the rumor was that their counter parties wouldn't take their business. MA and ICE are back to form from Thursday and both look horrible. I think MA goes a lot lower. I also shorted some ZION for a small gain but it didn't crack like I thought it might. Trying to fix stockcharts.com, later.

No Applause Needed

OMG!!!! How about MA and ICE posted this morning. I blogged and twittered my ass off on these two today so NO excuses!!!! How about that rally huh? All the bulls are gathering their tails and are quietly putting it between their legs while we made money. This market looks toasted. X down 22,ANR DOWN 16, CLF down 20, JRCC down 13, POT down 10 and my old favorite XME, which gives you all of these, was down 10. I never so a move like that--in my life. I remember sitting on the desk at Lehman in 87 and watching that crash, this is starting to make that look like a cub scout marshmallow roast. Oh, by the way, Fast Money is on-don't listen, nothing but wrong most of the time. Karen looks cute tonight she's growing on me,optically I mean.

There is a rotation going on, obviously, but the question is where is the money going to go? Ain't gonna be the financials yet I don't think. Solars look horrible, and ag/fert can't seem to be sold fast enough. I don't blame the pundits for calling for a rally today because it does seem so overdone, and the natural inclination is to look at a little rally like yesterday as a potential "turn." It reminds me of the woman whose husband didn't beat her today, so she thinks everything is all right and takes him back. Last night I posted that I didn't understand what all the excitement was about. As I read the post I see that I called for unemployment and ECB news for today. I've been calander challenged lately, sorry. It's tomorrow.

So a report comes out today that GM could go bankrupt, that would be a shame. I have a littany of "bad things" that could happen and you guys know about them all, the question is can the market right here, right now, overcome it? I don't feel the karma which brings me to....

WHAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW-TWO SCENARIOS:

Scenario #1 A short trading day number one. If the employment # sucks, it could ignite sell pressure on a shortened day which will increase the fear level because we are closed Friday. Bids will implode and for the next three days we will hear about a black Monday and probably get one. The VIX is still kissing its cousin here.

Scenario #2 The number is ok and the market does nothing, or rallies a little. Fear is a bigger emotion that greed so I expect a bigger move lower than higher.

If scenario #1 comes to fruition, I will short and stay short through the weekend, if scenario #2 is the case I will wait for Monday.

ICE,ICE BABY

The Vanilla Man would be proud. I'm short MA too

ICE

A break of $110 would be a beautiful short. I put up a two year chart to magnify the beauty of the head and shoulders