Earnings Kickoff

Futures are lower as we digest gains. So far the biggest disgrace by the administration in my opinion is their unwillingness to take back TARP money from those who want to get out from the control of the government. I guess they forgot it's "our" money, but then again if you want full blown socialism I guess you want the ability to tell banks "who" to loan money to. After all, that's how it starts. What an unexpected benefit other than porkulus, for the government to piss away more money. Gotta love it.

Earnings start today with MOS, AA and BBBY report after the close. Alcoa like YHOO is a serial failure when it comes to beating the street, but who knows what the reaction will be, it is such a beaten dog. I expect an earnings bloodbath, but the question is what will the reaction be? It sure would be a great time for the bulls to take some profits.

Agriculture

These names are all on their 50 day moving averages or thereabouts. A breach of these levels with volume could allow some nice 10% trades on the short side. On my radar. MOO is the ETF for the sector and it can be shorted.

No You Big Dope, We Haven't Botttomed

Afternoon Look

My gut tells me they crush this animal. I just don't trust a strong Friday rally. Will they just leave it here? Don't know. I'm in cash and waiting for direction. If they start to rollover I will play SMN long and MOS short aggressively. MOS had the biggest sell side volume of all the ags. yesterday

Some Love In The Agriculture Patch

More Fertilizer Breakdowns?

I posted these names on the newsletter about an hour ago but had problems posting charts. These all have developing bear flags. I put my short price levels in the newsletter. For those of you that haven't seen it I would short MOS at $30, AGU at 32 and CF around 47. Of course this would be contingent on a move lower in the market.

Ags and Analysts

RBC Capital is out this morning reiterating there strong buy on POT and maintain their $375 target. My blood pressure is rising as I write.

CSFB is lowering estimates on Goldman for the second time in two weeks. What did they miss the first time? Morons.

I'm looking to short the ag space on any bounce, although I don't know if I will get it. I think AGU is ready to fall off the face of the earth by the way.

Lunch Update

Oil, coal and ag/fert are strong, the financials are off about 2%. I'm in and out of LEH and AIG on the short side and am playing POT, MOS and AGU a bit from the long side. I'm keeping my eye on ENER as it may catch a late day turnaround. It's a good day for it to make another run if it feels so inclined.

Intimidating Wisdom and Foresight

So RBC reiterated a strong buy on POT on July 18 when the stock was $209, we are now sitting under $170. Brilliant!!!!!!

POTASH

25-Jul-08 Reiterated UBS Buy $320 → $308
24-Jul-08 Downgrade Scotia Capital Sector Outperform → Sector Perform
18-Jul-08 Reiterated UBS Buy $285 → $320
18-Jul-08 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $340 → $375
09-Jul-08 Reiterated BMO Capital Markets Outperform $310 → $335
09-Jul-08 Initiated Canaccord Adams Buy
24-Jun-08 Reiterated UBS Buy $250 → $285
19-Jun-08 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $300 → $340
19-Jun-08 Reiterated Credit Suisse Neutral $210 → $280
16-Jun-08 Reiterated Citigroup Buy $243 → $284
11-Jun-08 Reiterated BMO Capital Markets Outperform $200 → $310

On June 19th Credit Suisse comes out with an outperform on MOS when the stock was at $151.25, the stock never saw an uptick and now trades at $ 97


MOSAIC

09-Jul-08 Initiated Canaccord Adams Buy
19-Jun-08 Reiterated Credit Suisse Outperform $165 → $195
16-Jun-08 Reiterated Citigroup Buy $200 → $212
11-Jun-08 Reiterated BMO Capital Markets Outperform $135 → $200

I could go on and on and on, you guys know me by now and what I think of the ANAL-lyst community.Mindless idiots whose real world doesn't exist outside of a balance sheet. The absorb like a sponge, voluminous quantities of data and content that "once was", with absolutely no regard for the here and now and what may happen in the future. Truly a crime in my book. If Cox at the USELESS bureaucracy at the SEC wants to make himself slightly useful, start making these analysts tailor there opinions to short trends that may possibly help the investors who listen to this puke. But I forgot---he doesn't like shorting. What a farce.

Wild

I've been called a stubborn Irishman before but this is ridiculous. I wasn't long anything today as we rallied up over 300 pts. I was just hanging around with KOL,DRYS,GNK and MOS. The path of least resistance was undoubtedly up but my homework had me getting short those groups. I did ok, nothing dramatic but didn't lose. It was tough to get long because we gapped up, then traded sideways and then it paused a bit after Bernanke, and then took off. My shorts were looking great and if not for the turn, probably would have done better. PCLN posted here as a short last month, was down about 15 points in the after market on their eps report. It's trading around $97 in the after market. Check it out. Not a bad call. Wish I had some. There were some pretty nice ranges on the names I traded, but I had to be very light on my feet, and I traded a bunch of volume today.

Anybody take the lovely UAUA posted this morning?

MOS

Sure there will be some bounces along the way but I can make a case for $60 on this one. The $112 area looks like a decent place to short

In Trouble

Morning Look

X had a real nice number this morning and it's up $10 in pre market. It's pushing the group higher and the coal stocks are jumping in as well. The financials look like they will rally here too. Maybe a turnaround Tuesday is setting up. I'm watching the agricultural sector as a possible short play. MOS is down about $5 here and I'm just wondering how this group will play out. Their charts are very suspect here. I will move fast if they look like they are going to cave. They can surprise you and turn fast so be careful.

I don't see the financial rally lasting-just my gut.

Lunch

The financials are leading the way down as I thought might happen. I've covered half of my short UYG position and half my long QID position, both at nice gains. I will either add to my position or cover/sell depending on what the market does later. The strength is in coal, steel,solar,energy and the weakness is tech and financials.

Earnings of interest to me after the close: AMGN, CF, MOS, PFWD

More Ags. and Earnings For Tomorrow

I mentioned in the last post I would mention some of the ags. There is a ton of air below these names, so if the sell off continues there will be a ton to make on the short side. By the way, DAG would be the double long etn. Thanks again Vic in Texas.

EPS I will watching in the morning are: SOHU, VZ, and SPG

Rotation Baby

They don't want commodities anymore. Hard ones, soft ones or any other one you can think off. Oddly, I didn't participate in the continued rally in the financials as I was so caught up being short the commodity sector. If I have more than three stocks on my screen I just can't focus. I did sell my overnight long on UYG on the gap up and I went long a little BAC and WB with profits, but it was all about commodities becoming unhinged for me. When the nat. gas # came out I went short and stayed short. When I noticed weakness in coal and steel I teed up a bunch of XME short and stayed there for what seemed like a lifetime. It was a staircase strait down and it was the best short I had all year. I also threw in some JRCC short for good measure. I also blasted XLE and OIH. I had IPP and MOS short. Too bad I ran out of money. It's rare when I press hard on position/positions, because I'm always looking over my shoulder, but I had it right and went all in short. I would have stayed overnight but they were catching bounces the last half hour. I have to run but I have some good ideas for tomorrow. Back soon.

PS. GOOG down $40 in after hours

MOS

Did you know that 68% of falling wedges result in upside breakouts? Now, I gotta go. Good luck

First Hour

Fertilizers, Oil, Oil Service, Gold, Copper, Silver are correcting here. A bit of a dollar rally combined wth extreme oversold conditions are the reasons. We'll have to see if they turn it around later. The gap ups were indeed faded. The semis are strong

Notable Weakness here:

MOS,POT,OIH,SLV,GLD

Petroleum #'s any minute