Agriculture

These names are all on their 50 day moving averages or thereabouts. A breach of these levels with volume could allow some nice 10% trades on the short side. On my radar. MOO is the ETF for the sector and it can be shorted.

No You Big Dope, We Haven't Botttomed

monsanto and potash

potash

i got a ton of e-mails because i left potash out, excuuuuuuse me!!!!
i think this whole group is going lower but they are getting close to oversold and could catch a bounce. i will be shorting them all on any dead cat bounces, and don't look for any of them to be the momo names they were, for years to come. that chapter is closed.

No Catalyst, No Confidence, No Buyers

Oh,the glory days of summer when the market just fell apart every day at around 3:30. My commodity call this morning served me well with being short gold, short CF and long SMN. My view last week that we could test the lows even with the "NO SHORT" list is also becoming closer to closure. Only 400 points away on the $DJI. We'll see, but the longer this bailout takes to become a finality, the lower this market will go. As you know, the market can handle anything, but not uncertainty.

The agriculture space got pounded and the last half hour of trading in POT looked like a hedgie liquidating if you ask me. I took CF home short.

If you've noticed, it's been light on charts and ideas around here at upside central. It's because we are in nutty times. Sometimes I'm short the open, long by mid morning and short by lunch and it would be unfair to you guys for me to have an opinion on anything here because it changes on a dime. I try to twitter when I can but right now it's a hit and run market for me. Play small and keep it tight. When the market moves on a random comment from an idiot senator, you have to be fast.

Ags and Analysts

RBC Capital is out this morning reiterating there strong buy on POT and maintain their $375 target. My blood pressure is rising as I write.

CSFB is lowering estimates on Goldman for the second time in two weeks. What did they miss the first time? Morons.

I'm looking to short the ag space on any bounce, although I don't know if I will get it. I think AGU is ready to fall off the face of the earth by the way.

Lunch Update

Oil, coal and ag/fert are strong, the financials are off about 2%. I'm in and out of LEH and AIG on the short side and am playing POT, MOS and AGU a bit from the long side. I'm keeping my eye on ENER as it may catch a late day turnaround. It's a good day for it to make another run if it feels so inclined.

Intimidating Wisdom and Foresight

So RBC reiterated a strong buy on POT on July 18 when the stock was $209, we are now sitting under $170. Brilliant!!!!!!

POTASH

25-Jul-08 Reiterated UBS Buy $320 → $308
24-Jul-08 Downgrade Scotia Capital Sector Outperform → Sector Perform
18-Jul-08 Reiterated UBS Buy $285 → $320
18-Jul-08 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $340 → $375
09-Jul-08 Reiterated BMO Capital Markets Outperform $310 → $335
09-Jul-08 Initiated Canaccord Adams Buy
24-Jun-08 Reiterated UBS Buy $250 → $285
19-Jun-08 Reiterated RBC Capital Mkts Outperform $300 → $340
19-Jun-08 Reiterated Credit Suisse Neutral $210 → $280
16-Jun-08 Reiterated Citigroup Buy $243 → $284
11-Jun-08 Reiterated BMO Capital Markets Outperform $200 → $310

On June 19th Credit Suisse comes out with an outperform on MOS when the stock was at $151.25, the stock never saw an uptick and now trades at $ 97


MOSAIC

09-Jul-08 Initiated Canaccord Adams Buy
19-Jun-08 Reiterated Credit Suisse Outperform $165 → $195
16-Jun-08 Reiterated Citigroup Buy $200 → $212
11-Jun-08 Reiterated BMO Capital Markets Outperform $135 → $200

I could go on and on and on, you guys know me by now and what I think of the ANAL-lyst community.Mindless idiots whose real world doesn't exist outside of a balance sheet. The absorb like a sponge, voluminous quantities of data and content that "once was", with absolutely no regard for the here and now and what may happen in the future. Truly a crime in my book. If Cox at the USELESS bureaucracy at the SEC wants to make himself slightly useful, start making these analysts tailor there opinions to short trends that may possibly help the investors who listen to this puke. But I forgot---he doesn't like shorting. What a farce.

In Trouble

More Ags. and Earnings For Tomorrow

I mentioned in the last post I would mention some of the ags. There is a ton of air below these names, so if the sell off continues there will be a ton to make on the short side. By the way, DAG would be the double long etn. Thanks again Vic in Texas.

EPS I will watching in the morning are: SOHU, VZ, and SPG

No Applause Needed

OMG!!!! How about MA and ICE posted this morning. I blogged and twittered my ass off on these two today so NO excuses!!!! How about that rally huh? All the bulls are gathering their tails and are quietly putting it between their legs while we made money. This market looks toasted. X down 22,ANR DOWN 16, CLF down 20, JRCC down 13, POT down 10 and my old favorite XME, which gives you all of these, was down 10. I never so a move like that--in my life. I remember sitting on the desk at Lehman in 87 and watching that crash, this is starting to make that look like a cub scout marshmallow roast. Oh, by the way, Fast Money is on-don't listen, nothing but wrong most of the time. Karen looks cute tonight she's growing on me,optically I mean.

There is a rotation going on, obviously, but the question is where is the money going to go? Ain't gonna be the financials yet I don't think. Solars look horrible, and ag/fert can't seem to be sold fast enough. I don't blame the pundits for calling for a rally today because it does seem so overdone, and the natural inclination is to look at a little rally like yesterday as a potential "turn." It reminds me of the woman whose husband didn't beat her today, so she thinks everything is all right and takes him back. Last night I posted that I didn't understand what all the excitement was about. As I read the post I see that I called for unemployment and ECB news for today. I've been calander challenged lately, sorry. It's tomorrow.

So a report comes out today that GM could go bankrupt, that would be a shame. I have a littany of "bad things" that could happen and you guys know about them all, the question is can the market right here, right now, overcome it? I don't feel the karma which brings me to....

WHAT COULD HAPPEN TOMORROW-TWO SCENARIOS:

Scenario #1 A short trading day number one. If the employment # sucks, it could ignite sell pressure on a shortened day which will increase the fear level because we are closed Friday. Bids will implode and for the next three days we will hear about a black Monday and probably get one. The VIX is still kissing its cousin here.

Scenario #2 The number is ok and the market does nothing, or rallies a little. Fear is a bigger emotion that greed so I expect a bigger move lower than higher.

If scenario #1 comes to fruition, I will short and stay short through the weekend, if scenario #2 is the case I will wait for Monday.

Messy Morning

Sloppy and messy to say the least. So far my greenback rally theory is in the crapper but I wasn't looking for it to gain traction until Friday or early next week anyway. We'll have to see how much egg will or will not be on my face. I am short my two ideas from last night, VLO and AG. I am also long some POT around $225. Looking for a rally later, hope we get it

How About Those Financials?

The financials were horrible today and I finally covered my UYG short, I don't want to stay around for the scraps. If they go any lower the whole market is screwed anyway. I was long some USX and POT and did well there. Keep an eye on AKS as it looks like it wants to break out big time as it came on very strong towards the end of the day. Interesting how LEH traded to the deal price to the penny.

Oil dropped about $4 and the greenback caught a rally. What's up with solar? The group didn't impress me after about 10 am on Friday. If they can't make hay when the sun is shining, then when?

More Earnings

The ag/fert plays had their correction,long overdue in my book. Letting some air out is always a healthy thing. I believe POT reports before the open and it should be a barn burner either way, probably a 15 pointer in either direction. Apple was crazy on the report as it immediately ran about 10 points up and then gave it all back. Starbucks (sbux) was dreadful and they reported that it was the worst quarter by the consumer ever. Amazon wasn't that bad, but it initially got knocked around in the after market. Oil took a breather and gold doesn't want to have anything to do with the weak dollar. Odd. I don't think the correction in the fertilizers is a major shift, but it is a group that needs to be watched closely. Hope you had a good one and see you in the morning. I'll be back pre market with some thoughts

First Hour

Fertilizers, Oil, Oil Service, Gold, Copper, Silver are correcting here. A bit of a dollar rally combined wth extreme oversold conditions are the reasons. We'll have to see if they turn it around later. The gap ups were indeed faded. The semis are strong

Notable Weakness here:

MOS,POT,OIH,SLV,GLD

Petroleum #'s any minute

A Stock Pickers Day

I did well today with my own four horseman that I mentioned in the morning blog. FCX and PCU gapped a bit but I caught some entries mid morning. POT was a monster even though the rest of the group chopped and USO was in a nice upward trend until about 2 pm. Has anyone checked out BLK? It's down about 30 points from my original short two weeks ago. Wish I held that one longer.

AAPL and RIMM got knocked around and the chips got spanked because of the TXN report yesterday. BRCM is up a buck in the after market on a decent number. The financials dragged all day and I may take a look at BAC over the next few days for a trade. The stock yields about 7% here and I think that should give some decent protection on the downside, even for a day or short term trade.

If this dollar of ours can catch any king of sustained rally it will be party time shorting oil, gold and all the other fun stuff, In the meantime, shippers exploded with DRYS and EXM cayching some major short covering.