The Dollar And Oil

I'm not in the crazy energy bear camp like most right now because I constantly worry about fire works and the Nigerians, but absent that, oil looks lower. The DUG call yesterday paid off and should continue to do so. Way too many variables on this one though. I'll trade it as I see it though and I do like the pump under $4. The dollar rally has failed before too.

More Stress

Oil is flying, gold is up and futures are lower. I think oil does its run for the roses this week. The greenback is weak again and the ECB will probably raise their rates on Thursday. That won't help things at all. I think many of my charts over the last few days can be in play this weak, both short and long. We desperately need some relief from oil prices to set us up for any kind of bounce and I just don't see it.

Watching USO and DXO as well as the other charts.

Oil and The Fed

That's all that matters today,really. Oil and USO has been in a two week consolidation and we will probably know today which way it will break. I can see 10 or 15 dollars a barrel either way depending on how strong or passive Bernanke sends his inflation message today. I don't mean the move will be made today but it will be a set up for the coming days.

The same names I've been talking about will work fine either long or short depending on the reaction.

Oil Again

Oil tagged $135.08 this morning. I received quite a few e-mails on my DUG post last night and some good points were made indeed. It traded 40million shares yesterday while normal volume is 10 million. Was the rise just due to XOM rolling over, or was this a major anticipatory trade of things to come? We sure will find out soon. USO has twice as many puts as calls in the open interest so any bullish move will only add fuel to the fire. The commodity is up today and Friday is usually a bullish day for oil but I will be looking to get long DUG at one point in the next couple of days for my longer term account. I usually do very well at extremes in the market and this certainly fits the bill. Stock futures are bouncing modestly. Good luck today.

CCJ and TIE

I was done trading around 1:30 as I caught some beautiful gains on CCJ and TIE. The former was on the setup list last night, TIE was not. I found it, while I was doing homework before the market opened, both I think are going higher. I'm about a $1.20 from getting stopped on my USO short. I'll either look brilliant on this or be whacked very soon. The setup list from last night did pretty well, with the exception of SEED which looked strong in pre market, then rolled over. I believe $7.62 is the breakout price but there wasn't any volume. On my radar anyway. Most of those stocks on the list did well until we sold off. Needed a breather anyway. Windy on the beach today and the waves are pounding the sand much like FSLR got pounded today. Solars need a breather and need a rest. If oil stays strong, they will be great buying opportunities, if not, great shorting opportunities. SOLF is just a monster and I wish I held it longer. I am a solar believer long term but you will get your esophagus ripped out if you don't trade them. Anyone know any solid wind plays. I feel so frigging green----nah, I just want to make money.

Be back later with some charts.

Sooooooooooo On Fire!!!!!!!!!!!!

I love trading when it works like this. I was lucky enough to have very good positions, literally near the lows of the day in SOLF and QCOM. The volume was sick, just absolutely sick on both. I held them all day and kicked them both at the close. I was very tempted to take them home but didn't want the risk. I may regret it based on the action. USO is giving be fits and my stop is $104. My buddy Johnson had a big winner in MBT today. I caught his call on Twitter and caught it for a a half.

Radar

USO is starting to trade like FSLR. That means it's either a bubble of biblical proportions or it truly is going to continue its parabolic move. In either event I am short. Stocks I may trade today:

SOLF
RCH
CHDX
FCX
ADBE
STP

Great Day at Headquarters and RCH

That beautiful chart on the left is part of the reason. I had it on the blog this morning as one to watch. No. I didn't buy it yesterday but caught it with some size a little before 10am. I have had success lately trading names that had a monumental volume explosion "the day prior". I did it with SOLF yesterday after it broke out and traded 9 million shares the day before. USO had me all jiggy until it started to rally. Hate that stock, but I'm still short. Tomorrow it will probably be strong as paranoia about geopolitical events over the weekend always plays a part. Recent names mentioned in the morning posts this week rocked-LEAP,ADBE,ADSK,SY, SOLF,RIG all acted well or exploded. Hope consumer sentiment doesn't pee in the pool tomorrow. Later!!!!!! Anyone but me want to eat 40 vicodin when you hear the N.Y. Times commercial on CNBC?

SHORT USO SOON

I will update. Let them have there way. Almost over. Getting short.Gonna make some huge loot next week.

Some Charts To Have On Radar

Here are some charts that I will be watching this week. There is a brief comment on each one. Please click on the chart to enlarge

Jobs Number Tomorrow

It was a phenomenal day as commodities crashed all around me. I was short the usual suspects, USO and GLD. I covered both at great prices. The jobs # is in the morning so I wanted to be flat. There are some groups that are getting oversold and some that are getting overbought. Tomorrow is another day. I'll be back early in the morning. Good night all.

Yesterday

There was no post last night as Upside Jr. got nailed in the eye with a fast ball last night and I spent three hours in the emergency room. He is totally fine. I had a bit of sellers remorse yesterday after I covered my shorts in the oils and gold. It twas a knee jerk reaction on my part, but I have to go with what the tape gives me. I think now that all the drama from yesterday has subsided, I can back to thinking strait. I still do like this group short, especially gold and oil and it would not be out of character for me to initiate short positions again today. I truly think Bernanke is in lala land with his very nonchalant view of inflation. I know the Fed doesn't include oil or food prices into their inflation number but if you drive a car or eat a slice of pizza you are being max squeezed.

Exxon reported earnings that were short and the stock is down 2.50 % in pre market. Could this be a catalyst to resume the move down in oil? I hope so. DUG could be interesting today as XOM is a decent componant of thet etf. DUG would have acted better yesterday if not for the strong performance in XOM which clearly bucked the trend.

The more I think about it I think I will be getting short some GLD and USO. They are acting very weak in pre market. I'll be on Twitter if I see anything hot. Good luck today

Fed Too Dovish For Me

I covered a bunch of stuff a little while ago. I may have pulled the trigger too early, but I was really hoping for much more hawkish inflation commentary than what I got. I thought Ben would send the message that inflation was his big concern. NOT!!!!!

It was a good two day run but I was really going for the brass ring today until Ben threw a wet towel on inflation. Gold was breaking to new lows and so was USO and DUG was moving nicely off the morning lows until psychology changed. I caught RIG short for a couple of points, but all the good action was early. Still made money, just not bags off it like I thought.

I always try to avoid playing in traffic when possible and thats why I covered.

PS= I reserve the right to get short all over again tomorrow

I'M SHORT EVERYTHING COMMODITY

It was a phenomenal day at Upside Headquarters. I'm on record for weeks now hoping for a commodity reversal and a dollar rally. Today the dollar hit a 3 week high and with the Fed's one and done (or none and done) it just adds fuel to the fire. Last nights late post gave you a handle on what I was looking at today and I've been giving real time reports on twitter on the right side of the blog for the last several days. Take a look at the last two charts I posted today on GLD and DZZ. Gold looks to be cracking and I would love a volume thrust down tomorrow to help ice the cake. Oil is starting to move lower on a day when two different oil ministers said two different things, One of them said there was probably $30 a share of speculation in a barrel of oil and the other one stated that with the weak dollar oil could see $200 by year end. Go figure. The fertilizers stocks are in free fall and what looks to be a rotation is in full swing. Or is it just a sharp correction and a phenomenal buying opportunity? Probably a bit of both as there will be some beautiful long side snap back rallies in the ferts.

Watch gold and oil tomorrow as these groups go big on both the upside and downside. I am short USO and I am long DUG and DZZ and I took both of them home. I have a cushion as I made excellent entries today. The XME got torched today as well as names like PCU and FCX.

On the tech front I caught RIMM on a couple of beautiful breakouts. It popped on very impressive volume. I almost took it home but didn't want to push my luck. I do believe the stock is ready to run and I'm a guy that doesn't really trade the name much.

I will be back later with some ideas for tomorrow but won't do much of anything until after the Fed. Don't forget the China stocks, as there are some nice set ups developing there.

MINI RANT- it's now official. Dennis Kneale in my view has been passed the obnoxiousness torch from Cramer. Fox must be partying naked that they traded that guy. Reminds me of Tom Seaver for Jim Fregosi.
Also why does Fast Money have a person like Karen Finerman on a show like FAST money. Nice enough gal, but she looks absolutely clueless on a daily basis and has given us names like MSFT and MO. Wow,amazing value added. I guess anybody can get 2 and 20 at a hedge fund.

Late Post

Just got out of a second meeting and will post in more detail in the morning. All my charts and tools are on my other laptop. I will be watching the DOLLAR for the rest of the week as the Fed will probably make its final cut. Looking at these scenarios though depending on how things unravel.

DZZ -double short gold etf
USO- short
DUG-
SRS-I just still hate housing -double short

Morning Check

A few names I'll be watching this morning:

USO,PCU,FCX,POT

Oil and the Dollar

Until the chart on the bottom stops going down, the chart on the top will probably continue to go up. An oversimplification without a doubt, but it really is an overwhelming factor in the rise of oil and other hard commodities. I guess I'm looking to be long as the momo is on the side of the oil bulls.

Sideways and Record Oil

Still a bit of chop out there. What is really impressive is the action in the fertilizer/ag group. Just when you think they may be getting ready to give some back,they turn around and close at the highs for the day. That' strength. Evidence of this is my last post where I shouted out a sell off in the group. Later in the day they found their strength and rallied strong. They are not ready to correct yet,simple as that. I traded a little USO long and TRA long and short. Lost a bit on the latter but caught a decent move in the former.

All in, it was choppy with very light volume. The financials let some air out as well. I posted charts of $SOX and SMH last night and both did pretty well today. I'll check in later.

I Was A Little Early

GLD and USO gapping down and I covered, but I am still short PCU which is getting blasted, so you have to take the good with the bad.

Covered Some Stuff

I shut down my screens around 2:30 as things were just perfect for me and I covered some shorts. I covered USO GLD and XME and covered half of my PCU position. My average on PCU is around $105 so I have a small cushion. I'm cautious because I don't know what Mr. Market will pull out of his hat in the next couple of days, as today was the end of the month. I'll watch in here and see how it plays out. The USO was a beautiful short as it totally reversed the opening move up, and just collapsed. When oil got near $100 per barrel, which is my trading target on the commodity, i took the profit. 5 points in a couple of trading days is a gift. I think $97-98-110 will be the trading range going forward. XME was good for a short term trade and the volume wasn't there for me to hold overnight. My target on GLD was around $88.50-89 anyway so I was close. I believe all this stuff is going lower but when I am given volatility that goes my way I have to take it. I posted recently that the main catalyst for my "short the commodity space" thinking was the upcoming G-7 meeting in a couple of weeks. The story there, is a bilateral effort to somehow strengthen the dollar. The talk gained a little traction today with Paulson, and I think that will help the oil/commodity sector continue to sell off in coming weeks. Still a traders market in the space I think. I'm all cash and short PCU small.

In conclusion,this is a weird market. The sellers aren't defending their space and the longs don't want to take the hill. Unimpressive at best.