Steel- Capitulation or More Pain Ahead?

Good Morning. Futures are off slightly as we await the blah blah from the Fed minutes. Let me guess, we are going to keep rates low and use everything in our arsenal to prevent Armageddon.

Let''s see how long this non existent volume rally continues. Folks are getting way to giddy and complacent for my taste. See you on twitter.

Morning Look

X had a real nice number this morning and it's up $10 in pre market. It's pushing the group higher and the coal stocks are jumping in as well. The financials look like they will rally here too. Maybe a turnaround Tuesday is setting up. I'm watching the agricultural sector as a possible short play. MOS is down about $5 here and I'm just wondering how this group will play out. Their charts are very suspect here. I will move fast if they look like they are going to cave. They can surprise you and turn fast so be careful.

I don't see the financial rally lasting-just my gut.

So, We Can't Blame Oil

The only bottom we are going to see anytime soon is the one on the left. I always loved Vanessa. Oil has been cooperating nicely, and this market can't get any mojo whatsoever, and if you throw out yesterdays pathetic attempt to rally, we look like we want to crash and make new lows. I'm glad I didn't drink the Kool Aide as I posted after the close yesterday. This is a sick market and it proves the pundits wrong again. It's really not ALL about oil. We are in a global recession and our financial system is close to flatline. This is all good though, very good, and does get us closer to a bottom. The bottom could be 10,000 on the Dow though. I made about 4 points on CLF short, 6 points on X short, 5 points on MA short, 3 points on ICE short, and about 7 points on SRS long. Banner day.We are going a lot lower kids. I will be back in a bit.

Senior Moment

I posted earlier that I was done for the week because at the time it thought it was Friday. I am chuckling to myself as I write this. I think I should take a three day weekend. Still chuckling, really. I think I'm a little burnt this week. Did anyone else think it was Friday? My wife did , maybe because it was our kids last day of school. Anyway, the market staged a nice rally when oil rolled over, and the financials were not to be stopped today. STI (short) was a huge win as well as PTEN and ESLR long. The latter was hard to play as it gapped, but the dip was to be bought and it rallied beautifully on huge volume. It was posted here last night.

One day of short covering doesn't make me bullish on financials or bearish on oil, but it does make me look twice. Just say oil does roll over, where does the money go? Financials? too early I think, although I am starting to look real,real hard at WB. Soft commodities? No, they will go where oil goes and are way overextended. Basic materials? Steel, especially X is on fire. Health care? Decimated today off the CVH news. Ouch. I used to trade that one. The only think I can think of is technology. I like ROM (double,super duper ultra long etf)

Tomorrow is Friday, historically my worst day of the week but lately I can't be stopped. I am going to trade piker small tomorrow and put this week in the bank. I'll be back in the early morning unless I see a chart that you need to see.