Why Can't This Market Have A Follow Through Day?

Maybe because the credit crisis is morphing into an economic crisis and folks are scared, I don't know. That's how I think it plays out, but that's just me. AAPL guided lower but the stock moved higher in the after market. It's not all bad, but the market is rudderless and has absolutely no leadership right now.

The bloom has really fallen off the rose over at RIMM headquarters and now we wait for the next Wall St. darling because it isn't RIMM anymore. So many trapped longs in that crowded name. Not much support below $50---45 then 40.

If the market is true to itself, it will rally tomorrow as it has become a puzzle wrapped in an enigma. Great for traders but not for the faint of heart. I'm trying to get my hands on the transcript of Paulson lobbying hard for 40 to 1 leverage while at the helm of GS so he could "diversify" its business. Now the fox has the key to the hen house. Funny how things turn out.

Financials in Trouble So Far

My MER short should be nice here as the financials are gapping down. No surprise there. RIMM is down about $13. Dow futures are down about 100 points here and oil up about 75 cents. Catch you later

You Can't Bring A Knife To A Gunfight

Bernanke doesn't have any juice. The commodity bears were praying he would talk tough on inflation(everyone knew he wouldn't raise), but instead it was the same canned BS, much like the canned BS that the G-8 pulled a week ago about strengthening the dollar. Nonsense, useless, a complete waste of time and jet fuel. I tried to test all levels of human obnoxiousness with my last post and it was done very tongue and cheek, God forbid you folks think I'm a complete ass, but when you make a perfect call you have to give yourself props, God knows I don't get enough love from the blog comments and I have made enough money from this blog to maybe buy a great steak and a good bottle of wine-once- and alone. But I digress.

I was long OIH,XLE, and QCOM in the morning. The world at that point in time thought Uncle Ben would "fix" things. Oil was fading and the financials were on fire. I was up big and covered everything. Then I saw the oils starting to act better and I thought if the Fed didn't cut, which they weren't going to do anyway, then the commodity bulls would have there way again anyway. What's the catalyst to stop them? The G-8 meeting didn't do a damn thing to strengthen the greenback, and it's business as usual with the Fed. I was right, and it feels good to anticipate and be so right. As I said in that last post, if this scenario played out I would switch gears, and I did. I went "long" OIH and XLE and shorted the breath out of the UYG and MER. As I said last night they caught a dead cat bounce (the financials) and that's all they caught.

The OIH rallied eight points off the lows (of course I didn't catch all that move) and XLE rallied beautifully off the lows. I went long and made some nice loot, but the real impact for me was getting short UYG and MER. UYG closed about 10 cents off the day low and gave back EVERYTHING!! MER closed a little off the lows and if it had more time I think was ready to implode. So much for falling oil solving the markets problems, we now know Bernanke can't. The commodity bulls got a free pass for now and I personally think they continue higher. Show me a catalyst for lower oil,and I'll listen. It sure won't be Israel lobbing some missiles into Iran. MOS rallied about 8 points off its low and IPI rallied about 6 points off its low, amazing reversals.

After the close, RIMM,NKE and ORCL are all lower. The open should be lower. I am going to stay with the girls I brought to this dance, energy long and financials short. I like the ferts for a bounce too. Watch the steels, especially NUE. I wanted to buy IPI down 6 but never pulled the trigger. My bad. Catch you later and don't buy the pundits.

Just Sayin'

I'm seeing so many of these, check out OI, a Cramer buy,buy,buy

I'M SHORT EVERYTHING COMMODITY

It was a phenomenal day at Upside Headquarters. I'm on record for weeks now hoping for a commodity reversal and a dollar rally. Today the dollar hit a 3 week high and with the Fed's one and done (or none and done) it just adds fuel to the fire. Last nights late post gave you a handle on what I was looking at today and I've been giving real time reports on twitter on the right side of the blog for the last several days. Take a look at the last two charts I posted today on GLD and DZZ. Gold looks to be cracking and I would love a volume thrust down tomorrow to help ice the cake. Oil is starting to move lower on a day when two different oil ministers said two different things, One of them said there was probably $30 a share of speculation in a barrel of oil and the other one stated that with the weak dollar oil could see $200 by year end. Go figure. The fertilizers stocks are in free fall and what looks to be a rotation is in full swing. Or is it just a sharp correction and a phenomenal buying opportunity? Probably a bit of both as there will be some beautiful long side snap back rallies in the ferts.

Watch gold and oil tomorrow as these groups go big on both the upside and downside. I am short USO and I am long DUG and DZZ and I took both of them home. I have a cushion as I made excellent entries today. The XME got torched today as well as names like PCU and FCX.

On the tech front I caught RIMM on a couple of beautiful breakouts. It popped on very impressive volume. I almost took it home but didn't want to push my luck. I do believe the stock is ready to run and I'm a guy that doesn't really trade the name much.

I will be back later with some ideas for tomorrow but won't do much of anything until after the Fed. Don't forget the China stocks, as there are some nice set ups developing there.

MINI RANT- it's now official. Dennis Kneale in my view has been passed the obnoxiousness torch from Cramer. Fox must be partying naked that they traded that guy. Reminds me of Tom Seaver for Jim Fregosi.
Also why does Fast Money have a person like Karen Finerman on a show like FAST money. Nice enough gal, but she looks absolutely clueless on a daily basis and has given us names like MSFT and MO. Wow,amazing value added. I guess anybody can get 2 and 20 at a hedge fund.