Monday, January 21, 2008

Stock Market Meltdown

Stocks are tumbling from Hong Kong to Europe and U.S. futures are showing their deepest drop since 9-11 on rising speculation we are now in the midst of a worldwide slowdown and that company defaults will rise. Oil is down almost 11% from Jan 3 high as it recognizes the impact of a global slowdown. Copper and gold are also lower. Canada and Latin America are also plunging. The market is priced for 72% odds of a 75 basis -point cut by the Fed at the January 30 FOMC meeting and the market is priced for 100% odds of a 100 basis-points in cumulative cuts by March. For April, its priced for a 100% chance of 125 basis-points in cuts. For the end of 2008 the market is pricing in a a fed funds rate of 2.375%.
Is this the capitulation that we have been looking for? Not so fast as a 500 point downside open could easily accelerate to a 1000 point decline. I will be walking in to the wood chipper in the morning flat with no open positions and will be looking for a bounty of opportunities on a day trading basis. With this volatility and potential short term panic on the horizon I just don't trust the market yet to babysit my money over night. The best chart patterns of late have been the ones of the ultra short etf variety. That has to tell me something. The market never sends out invitations to "the bottom" so no one alive knows when it will show up. With that thought in mind don't try to pick one. My father used to say "if it doesn't feel right-don't do it." That is the message I will take into the open tomorrow. Try not to be a hero,trust your gut, and if you do decide to play tomorrow-honor your stops.

4 comments:

Stewie said...

trying to call bottoms in bear market is like signing your death letter.

upside said...

stewie

it's
gonna be a doozy-good luck today pal

upside

Jack said...

yes,catching the knife is painful. I do remember the people who had the nads to buy the day after 87 crash. They made a fortune and it happened quick,but that was huge percentage drop,not these 500 point events

upside said...

jack

good luck today my friend
upside

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.