Thursday, March 13, 2008


We have CPI at 8:30. If the number is bad, the market tumbles. If the number is good the market will rise. But what if the number is bad and the market rises? A slim chance, but we could go 350 up on a short squeeze and it would signal to me that we have finally bottomed. The most likely scenario is that the number sucks and we go down. I'm throwing out crazy end games because in my opinion the market is still in no mans land.
I am still short OIL (USO) and have a bit of room left on my stop. I think it will tube, I just hope it's before my stop. Tomorrow is expiration for crude options so it should be volatile. I discovered another way to play oil short that is linked directly to West Texas Intermediate and it is DCR, an inverse play on oil,that is, when oil goes down,this goes up. Sometimes USO is hard to borrow and DUG for some reason doesn't exactly mirror the move in crude.The level I'll be watching, for a meaningful break on USO is $85.85 and then $84.70. I think we do a trap door from there.


Jack said...

I bought dug on wed and sold at end of day missing yesterdays rise in morning. I sold because it was going the same direction as oil and wasnt acting as a short play.
I wonder if dcr will have the same type of action.
I guess I have to sell calls in USO,the thing is I am thinking any fall will be shortlived the first time around so I will have to short the current month and I am leary of doing that.

upsidetrader said...

i would be happy to get through today without any harm,as you know there are some expiring futures today. World leaders are meeting April 12 to figure out a way to stop the dollar slide-as that gets traction in the market i think oil is cooked-


Market Monk said...

Hey, great blog. Thanks for the heads up on DCR, did not know about that one.

upsidetrader said...

thanks bro-dcr a good way to play short oil-i think much lower in the next couple of weeks, your blog rocks too,very informative


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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.