Sunday, May 18, 2008

Cautious Here

Yea, I know I've had this up before and the market went higher but but on such light volume. Did you know that last week the volume on the NYSE Composite Index was the lowest in 5 years? Did you know the volume on the rally from March is lower than the volume from the January lows? This is the stuff that makes me really cautious and shows lack of conviction by the buyers. Some of the best rallies though, are those of the"climbing the wall of worry" variety. The question I ask myself is how much longer can it last? Rallies led by commodities are not typically the kind you want to see and it appears to me that a rest is needed in these names, but it's not validated by the charts. USO (I'm short) looks higher and if you look at a chart of DUG you would want to be very short that etf. Market players seem "real" relaxed in here and that always gets my antenna up

I will have some charts later, and they are all primarily bullish as they should be. I trade the tape so it doesn't matter to me which way it goes, but in my humble opinion it's time to be careful if you are leaning one way to hard.

The beauty of this market though ,are these rotations which provide great volatility to traders. I'm sure that when commodities come in it will open a window of opportunity in the technology or financial group-and then back again.


About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.