Tuesday, June 10, 2008

Getting Ready Just In Case

Oil reversed bullishly for stocks as the powers that be seem to be ganging up to help the greenback. This is one scenario that I buy into 1000% because it's so politically motivated. We need the dollar to rally and oil to collapse or our collective gooses are so cooked. I can't take another barbecue where people are pissing and moaning about high oil prices. Enough already. The market didn't really respond today and that's OK because they don't believe it yet. I pounded the table a couple of months ago that the G-7 would save the day. They met, talked some crap, and nothing happened. The dollar proceeded to collapse and oil went off the hook. I truly believe this time will be different or else the lows hit in January will look like top ticks. The Group of 7 (kind of like the Chicago 7, but with economics degrees)meets at the end of the week and I believe they will do what they have to do to get some sustained upside momentum in the dollar. Oil and commodities should get crushed and that could set the stage for a vicious rally. This is part my thinking, but also Tony Creszenzi who just did a cameo on Fast Money. He is one of maybe two folks I listen to on CNBC. He's a very bright guy and is usually very right on these types of calls.

That leads me to soar which I do believe is cooked. Sure there may be a bounce or two along the way, but the group is in sell mode. FSLR caught a short covering rally on some chatter of a joint venture agreement with GE.

The financials pounded their chest early but faded. I was on both side of the market on the group but really just washed for the day.WB was a trade from both the long and short side and got a little ahead of itself, but it is one to keep an eye on. I would say about 70% of my trading over the last seven months has been on the short side, but I am kind of getting that feeling that things are about to change, and change big. Day by day, day by day.


About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.