Wednesday, June 25, 2008

You Can't Bring A Knife To A Gunfight

Bernanke doesn't have any juice. The commodity bears were praying he would talk tough on inflation(everyone knew he wouldn't raise), but instead it was the same canned BS, much like the canned BS that the G-8 pulled a week ago about strengthening the dollar. Nonsense, useless, a complete waste of time and jet fuel. I tried to test all levels of human obnoxiousness with my last post and it was done very tongue and cheek, God forbid you folks think I'm a complete ass, but when you make a perfect call you have to give yourself props, God knows I don't get enough love from the blog comments and I have made enough money from this blog to maybe buy a great steak and a good bottle of wine-once- and alone. But I digress.

I was long OIH,XLE, and QCOM in the morning. The world at that point in time thought Uncle Ben would "fix" things. Oil was fading and the financials were on fire. I was up big and covered everything. Then I saw the oils starting to act better and I thought if the Fed didn't cut, which they weren't going to do anyway, then the commodity bulls would have there way again anyway. What's the catalyst to stop them? The G-8 meeting didn't do a damn thing to strengthen the greenback, and it's business as usual with the Fed. I was right, and it feels good to anticipate and be so right. As I said in that last post, if this scenario played out I would switch gears, and I did. I went "long" OIH and XLE and shorted the breath out of the UYG and MER. As I said last night they caught a dead cat bounce (the financials) and that's all they caught.

The OIH rallied eight points off the lows (of course I didn't catch all that move) and XLE rallied beautifully off the lows. I went long and made some nice loot, but the real impact for me was getting short UYG and MER. UYG closed about 10 cents off the day low and gave back EVERYTHING!! MER closed a little off the lows and if it had more time I think was ready to implode. So much for falling oil solving the markets problems, we now know Bernanke can't. The commodity bulls got a free pass for now and I personally think they continue higher. Show me a catalyst for lower oil,and I'll listen. It sure won't be Israel lobbing some missiles into Iran. MOS rallied about 8 points off its low and IPI rallied about 6 points off its low, amazing reversals.

After the close, RIMM,NKE and ORCL are all lower. The open should be lower. I am going to stay with the girls I brought to this dance, energy long and financials short. I like the ferts for a bounce too. Watch the steels, especially NUE. I wanted to buy IPI down 6 but never pulled the trigger. My bad. Catch you later and don't buy the pundits.

7 comments:

Jason said...

Showin much luv :) Keep up the good work!

Manish said...

I've been following your blog and twitter now for the past few weeks and I have to say that I'm learning a lot from you. This market has sure been a roller coaster ride the past few months. I've lost a terrible lot thanks to the dying financials but this experience has made me a stronger trader for the future - atleast that's how I feel right now. I've become a better trader thanks to you.

Last but not the least, I have to say that you TOTALLY rock!!!

LJ's trading journey said...

This blog is what i check at least every 1/2 hour during the trading day and at least once at night and twice pre-market.

Your experience and generosity with your ideas are a great help for beginning traders like me.

Thank you Mr. Upsidetrader. You totally Rock!!!!

Lisa_Jay

BABY TRADER said...

I too have been a silent loyal reader. Love your blog. It is the first one I read after booting up my platform.

Great calls, great work.

sickand888 said...

You have a fantastic blog in that it is timely and always thought provoking. I really appreciate your tremendous effort.
Thanks

Steve

George Jackson said...

It's amazing the similarities between your trading ideas and those of my broker, who has been "berry berry good to me" to quote Slammin' Steroidin' Sammy. Here's some love for you! (BOW)

George Jackson said...

It's amazing the similarities between your trading ideas and those of my broker, who has been "berry berry good to me" to quote Slammin' Steroidin' Sammy. Here's some love for you! (BOW)

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.