Wednesday, July 2, 2008

No Applause Needed

OMG!!!! How about MA and ICE posted this morning. I blogged and twittered my ass off on these two today so NO excuses!!!! How about that rally huh? All the bulls are gathering their tails and are quietly putting it between their legs while we made money. This market looks toasted. X down 22,ANR DOWN 16, CLF down 20, JRCC down 13, POT down 10 and my old favorite XME, which gives you all of these, was down 10. I never so a move like that--in my life. I remember sitting on the desk at Lehman in 87 and watching that crash, this is starting to make that look like a cub scout marshmallow roast. Oh, by the way, Fast Money is on-don't listen, nothing but wrong most of the time. Karen looks cute tonight she's growing on me,optically I mean.

There is a rotation going on, obviously, but the question is where is the money going to go? Ain't gonna be the financials yet I don't think. Solars look horrible, and ag/fert can't seem to be sold fast enough. I don't blame the pundits for calling for a rally today because it does seem so overdone, and the natural inclination is to look at a little rally like yesterday as a potential "turn." It reminds me of the woman whose husband didn't beat her today, so she thinks everything is all right and takes him back. Last night I posted that I didn't understand what all the excitement was about. As I read the post I see that I called for unemployment and ECB news for today. I've been calander challenged lately, sorry. It's tomorrow.

So a report comes out today that GM could go bankrupt, that would be a shame. I have a littany of "bad things" that could happen and you guys know about them all, the question is can the market right here, right now, overcome it? I don't feel the karma which brings me to....


Scenario #1 A short trading day number one. If the employment # sucks, it could ignite sell pressure on a shortened day which will increase the fear level because we are closed Friday. Bids will implode and for the next three days we will hear about a black Monday and probably get one. The VIX is still kissing its cousin here.

Scenario #2 The number is ok and the market does nothing, or rallies a little. Fear is a bigger emotion that greed so I expect a bigger move lower than higher.

If scenario #1 comes to fruition, I will short and stay short through the weekend, if scenario #2 is the case I will wait for Monday.


About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.