Thursday, August 14, 2008

Opposite Day

Volatility and sector churning were the themes of the day. Most of the names I was long yesterday, I was short today. I twittered my main move today which was short OIH, X, and long SMN. It was a quick breakdown and I caught it for a nice trade. The rest of the day I just hid in the weeds and watched as the market chopped and couldn't find direction. I thought the financials may break but they didn't. Yesterday was easy money on the long side with the steel/coal. Today, it was a bit tougher as coal hung in, but steel was weak. It made SMN choppy but I was lucky to catch it perfectly. It was a slightly delayed move after the nat gas number came out.

So what now ? I think the financials still suck and Goldman came out bullish on the dollar, they've been bearish, so I'll listen. I tend to agree, considering Europe is in recession and the euro could come under big pressure in the weeks to come. A strong dollar means one thing-death to commodities, so that is my story and I'm sticking to it. I think oil could tag $100 next week and I am on the prowl for shorts in that group everywhere.If oil breaks $110 I really think it gets a drop to $100 and fairly quick. There will be a nice amount of money to be made given that scenario. Tomorrow there is some crude expiration mumbo jumbo going on, but my bet is they could cave next week. I'm not holding anything short, but I think this may happen. Tune in it should be fun.

Yesterday was what I call an opportunistic day, meaning the commodity sector was in a downtrend, but there was a beautiful opportunity to get long. This is a trying market and will drive you crazy unless you are very light on your feet. Totally hit and run for now. I don't know if this major momentum play in commodities is over, no one knows, but it gives me awesome shots to trade the tape. Maybe POT goes to $300 like these ridiculous analysts are saying. I know one thing, they will probably lose money and I won't. Sounds cocky but as a rule they are just beneath value added and always get it wrong.

So Goldman is now a dollar bull, but they are on the carpet with a $175-200 oil target. How does that work? I have to do some more due dilly.



About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.