Thursday, October 16, 2008

One Helluva Rally

Bottom to top about 800 points. These moves I think we be common place until we get our sea legs. If the market can can keep fighting back after big down days, it would be considered bullish and part of the bottom carving process.

I kept my SMN and SDS longs overnight and had several worries throughout the day as I tried to scale to sell. I had some good opportunities to sell and at one point SMN and SDS took out yesterdays highs during the morning pullback. I didn't get it all done and ended up being a bit net short as the market started to rally. Today was testament to being flat at the end of the day and not trying to predict what the market will do. Sometimes I just go with my gut and thought the percentages were good. No blood as I had a good cushion, but consider myself a big fat ass for going against my discipline. I hate giving back. It's just to hard to make.

I still think we are in lala land but the rallies after big weakness tells me folks think things are getting cheap. Less cheap than they were this morning. One day at a time. Running to a wake, 47 years old, the liver lost the fight with Jim Beam.


upsidetrader said...

Hey, Upside,

You could be right, but...

Maybe mutual fund holders won't ever puke like 9/11, but I spent last weekend with a lot of family and friends, and NONE of them have puked. They are concerned about the economy (not their jobs), haven't personally seen anyone have credit troubles, AND AREN'T EVEN CONSIDERING PUKING their "201Ks" to cash.

I think there might be a lot more to go, but maybe we get a lull and have to grind down some more before puking really takes hold.

I also have a friend who is inheriting $400K soon. He wants to buy a condo in downtown Austin, and he's pretty anxious to pop.

It just seems like the word isn't "out" as much as we might have thought.

You might want to take your own poll...

for what it's worth...

(If you want to puke yourself, turn on CNN Headline News. Every single thing they say about the ppt-shit is misstated.)


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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.