Monday, October 20, 2008

What Would Roubini Do?

I was in meetings all day and frankly I would have rather been water boarded. I'm catching up and got back to my screens around 3pm so the usual precision, riveting, crisp Godlike analysis you're used to, may be lacking. So basically, don't listen to a thing I say as I am behind the curve.

I did one little trade which probably did nothing more than highlight my need to do a trade-it was almost 72 hours after all. I nibbled a bit of SMN trying to catch a reversal and lost a half buck and that's all I did today. I could have just watched as I was gone all day, but in true stock degenerate fashion I did that trade. I have issues. Actually SMN was a beautiful short today, but I can't say I would have played it that way, although it has been a winner in the past. Odd how when I am bullish on basic materials in the past I have shorted SMN as opposed to going long the double long etf. I guess I just love to short things. I have issues, and even my therapist Dr. Roubini asked me to see someone else. Talk about the pot calling the kettle black. I'll take you down Roubini.

Today was light volume from what I saw but the bulls should and will, take it. I'm a volume freak and it didn't impress me, maybe it will be a delayed reaction as the all consuming fear transforms to all overwhelming greed overnight. It's happened before and that's what makes a market. I do believe that the worst of the hedge fund liquidations is over, I mean how much more weight can they be holding? There were some massive 7,10 and 12 % moves in some stocks and etf's today, and I hope everyone made some nice loot. These are the ring the register days if you can catch the right side.

I will be back in rare form tomorrow and am looking forward to getting back to the screens. Fast $ just put out about 650 "gotta buys" so I will be looking for shorts. That doesn't mean I will be short, I'm just starting the list. I may even go long tomorrow, you just never know. I don't know why the media is suddenly bullish on the global economy. Was it because China had a 7 or a 9 in front of GDP today? Again, out of the loop so I'm asking. AXP had a number that beat the lowest of expectations and about ten minutes later had their credit downgraded by Moodys. Credit agencies suck and should all be jailed immediately, but it still affects their borrow, more to come there, trust me.

Has the market discounted a potential 30 to 40 reduction in S&P earnings? We all know that the analysts will cut near the bottom and they haven't even started yet. Interesting to see how this plays out.


About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.