Thursday, October 9, 2008

Yes, It Can Get Worse

Just when you thought you've seen it all, right? Unbelievable but believable at the same time. Wow. We continue to pay the price for all of our nasty habits and Alan Greenspan is getting an eyebrow wax with Andrea Cramer somewhere in Turks and Caicos in between 400k speaking appearances. It ain't right I tell ya.

The "we almost are at a bottom" charlatans were out in full force today as they were out in full force at 11000, 10000 and 9000. When do they get a gag order put on them? A broken clock is right twice a day, and when we do bottom, CNBC will canonize them all as bottom callers, never once poking them in the eye for being so pathetically wrong. It's OK to be wrong, but please, please don't give credit they don't deserve.

Hey, people are truly getting killed. The investing public supposedly lost $3 trillion the day we lost 777 on the DOW last week and it has only gotten worse. I think it's safe to say that we can tack on another 4 or 5 trillion to that number now. As $ 4 gasoline price acted as a stealth but hurtful tax on the American public, now the demise of lifelong savings and investment can only add fuel to the fire. And this frankly is worse. Now the folks that legitimately need a few bucks from an equity line because they need a little help or a bridge won't be able to as credit has been cut off. I'm not talking about the guy that taps his line for a plasma TV in every room or a trip to Morocco with the wife, I'm talking about the guy that never abused the privilege but needs to reinvent himself through this tough time. It hasn't happened to me yet but I've spoken to many friends who have wonderful credit that have had their lines dramatically reduced or eliminated entirely.

So, what now? I'm clueless. You know I'm a bear so it's nearly impossible for me to predict anything but an oversold bounce, and it will be dramatic when it happens, maybe 1000 points up. Every time I try to make a case for a bullish slant I just end up with nothing. No catalysts at all, and we are entering a very deep global recession in my opinion. When Goldman Sachs and General Electric get on bended knee for money at usurious rates, it says it all in my book.

The shorts were let loose today and I was one of them as usual. My only financial short was BAC because I just think they've just swallowed too much. I do believe their rock star status will soon be taken away as people figure out what the true value of these banks really should be. Back in the day banks traded at 4 and 5 times earnings, but at least they "had" earnings. The dynamic has changed with the financials FOREVER and that is why I have leaned on them short for a year. And I include the brokerages especially with that statement. And granted a year ago I had no idea of the depth and breadth of this implosion, but I'm a quick study.

Hopefully you are playing things small and not trying to catch a bottom, because if you are, you now know what it's like to get your face thrashed off. I was guilty a few times today but my stops are so ridiculously tight that I can be wrong a lot and still make a lot of money. I posted the other day that it will be safe to get back in when they STOP selling rallies but that's all that the market continues to do for now. The guy that catches the bottom is like the guy that starts traffic, you'll never know who he is because he probably doesn't exist.

One thing I will say is that we are closer to a bottom than ever. Hell, it's only another 8600 points. Hang in there and don't quit, it will be shooting ducks on the way up.


George Jackson said...

I have skimmed quite a bit on the long side this week, also using very, very tight stops. Part of it is luck, I'm sure due to my shamrock necklace. MOS, NOV, and FLR have been my vehicles...MOS stayed strong today through the sell off and it may be recovering from the liquidation, FLR has good business prospects and huge backlog, and NOV will be going great guns as long as oil stays above $60. Anyway, the oversold bounce will benefit these 3 bigtime, IMO. They all popped on the mini-rallies the past 4 days. Peace.

upsidetrader said...

i like them all when it's time-mos displayed amazing strength today

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.