Thursday, November 13, 2008

When You Least Expect It

Leave it to the bulls to mess up some perfectly good looking bear charts. All of my charts that were posted here the last two days were beautiful, just beautiful, until the market decided to trade up 900 points from bottom to top for no other reason than a powerful bounce of the 8000 area, But guess what? The market doesn't need a reason.

We did have a very similar move back on Oct 28th and the market rolled over to this mornings level. The bulls will argue that this was the second retest and the bears will argue that it not only will retest again but go back and make fresh new lows. I happen to be in the latter camp. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. I haven't flinched yet, I haven't bought into the bullish rhetoric once, and it's served me well.

I respect the market and I respect a technical rally off relevant levels, but if this rally was because of the G-20 meeting, I find that tantamount to getting long the United Nations. I had a good morning with MCD and MEE shorts. I was very active today as I got long and short those names many times. I didn't see the rally coming and frankly I didn't get long until it was up around 350. I bought UYM and SSO at that level and it worked nicely. I also caught a nice SMN trade somewhere in between.

I'm not buying the hype and I am completely flat. The bulls had their day and I will give it to them, but not many more.


EDC said...


Do yo think the bull run is good for a day or so?

maybe 950-1000 sp 500?

The bulls have to sucker some back into their losing positions.... and possible could we argue that we were oversold?

confused as usual

upsidetrader said...

u r not alone -everyone is now confused, but if we rally hard again tomorrow we will be overbought again--lol-i'm flat and waiting

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.