Monday, December 22, 2008


The holiday shortened week is upon us as the bulls have visions of sugar plums and DOW 14,000 on their minds, the bears hear sleigh bells and have hopes of DOW 6000 on their minds. Will January be the "tell" for 09 that last January was for 08? So many questions and no one has a clue. My view is that more shoes will drop, auto payments,credit card payments, more credit downgrades for the S&P 500, massive and substantial earnings reductions, and the biggy, unemployment, gets much worse.

The upside is that oil prices are way down due to the disintegration of the global economy, and the divorce rate is way down as couples can't afford the alternative. We will work our way out of this mess just not at 2:26 eastern time on June 3, 2009 as all the incompetent pundits will have you believe. How can they pick a time frame with such certainty when they have been wrong on every count since 14,000? Remember that 98% of mutual funds lost money in 08, and these are the same dull thinkers that get dragged out on TV every day to tell you how things are going to be. Do yourself a favor and block out the noise in 09, it will save you plenty.


Adam said...

I actually have the recovery at 9:45 AM on March 14th, so they're all pessimists. You just don't get it, it's a bottoming process. Sure you might have gotten in 20o pts ago in the SPX, but you don't want to miss the first 100 pt rally, so better to be early!

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.