Thursday, January 8, 2009

The Test

The market managed a rally off the lows as Walmart started the day off with a disappointing report and added pressure an already miserable retail sector. If they ain't buying at WMT then they just ain't buying if you ask me . If you are a retailer and you sell "cloths", you are a dead man walking, at least that's the impression I got from some smart retail people today. WMT sells cloths as well as some discretionary items-what a tell about how bad things really are. Dollar stores continue to be all the rage.

The "test" for the market to me is how it reacts to the unemployment figures tomorrow. ADP greased the skids with their guess yesterday. My personal feeling is we get a sell off with a number north of 600k and a possible rally on a number in the 500's. The latter number is baked in to a degree but a much higher number and we will see some pain. It's all lower in the end, I'm just talking about tomorrow.

Obama wants to spend trillions more and the market actually sold off during and after his speech but caught legs later in the day. Tomorrow will be a key day. I will try and post some charts in a bit.

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Anonymous said...

thanks for the post man, just a little question... you say you're test is the reaction for tomorrow's numbers.. but whats the test... you say the two possible outcomes if any of those happens the test... is passed and the market is... sane? if not we're still in insane mode?

thanks man, haven't been able to talk to you for a while on twitter, hope to regain contact :)

upsidetrader said...

what i mean is, if the number is in the 500's(unemployment) and the market rallies on that horrible number, it will have passed the test in that we are still in short term bullish mode-if not then bets are off--imo

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.