Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Wow, What A Surprise

Newsflash*********** Market went down, investors appalled, media circus ensues.....developing........

Did anyone think we were going strait back to 14,000? Amazing to me, really. The ADP number was a disaster but the real number is out on Friday. If there is any recovery bounce tomorrow, I will short it as the recent unemployment number 'eves" have been an excuse to sell. I don't think tomorrow will be any different as we are still walking on egg shells in a very tentative market. The slightest unpleasantry will roll us over pretty quick. The sell buttons are usually right next to the buy buttons--at least they were when I last checked.

Oil is getting crushed as the global implosion fear is back. It never left yet people seemed surprised. Retail was under pressure and December sales will be reported tomorrow. They should be just swell.

Meredith Whitney, my Goddess of Truth, gave a needed reminder to the idiots that have been stepping all over each other to by financials, that things are still miserable at your local bank. She reminded us that banks will probably suffocate investors with more dilutive equity offerings and that the agencies may even throw in a few credit downgrades for good measure. I've been saying this for months and believe with my last breath that this will come to fruition. Don't forget entire dividend eliminations. Dividend cuts were so 2008.

The financials as a result gave back gains and the commodity sector got spanked as global recessionary fears took center stage. Unless they close the Straits of Hormuz I think oil is going to $20-25 a barrel, but that's just me. Commercial real estate and the homebuilders each gave up about 3.5 % today.

Just my own thought, but this market will not "bottom" until housing gets fixed, and housing won't get fixed until unemployment stops going parabolic. You all know my thoughts on where unemployment goes, maybe 12-15%.

Enjoy the rallies when you can, but stay prepared for max pain.


Bob Brill said...

enjoyed your tweets, joe. actually i was initially spun around when you mentioned the financials, which yesterday it looked like you had planned to play as "long," then you made hay on "shorts." admire your flexibility. congrats, bob.

upsidetrader said...

hey bob,
yeah, hope i didnt confuse anyone but i put out these ideas for people to analyze and then use their own judgement,thats why its not a buy and hold or even a swing traders market yet, things change much to fast, the trade could be on again by friday-u never know.

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.