Friday, February 27, 2009

Watching the Market and the Financials...Again

So Citi is back under $2 and $BAC is back under $5. Didn't last long did it? Oh where are the halcyon days when our biggest banks sold for more than $5? Seems like yesterday.

My own personal opinion here is that we will become unhinged as the wheels fall off the train. I believe 5000 is coming and maybe sooner than most people think. Call me silly, but this isn't the time for a $1 trillion tax increase and drunken sailor spending. I'm goofy like that.


GL said...

Scary thought, but, you may be correct. What do you think Dow 5000 looks like?
In other words which industries would *collapse*.
1) I'm assuming that Dow 5000 there is no question the major Banks are nationalized.
2) Auto industry is truly bankrupt
3) Oil industry? $15 barrel?
4) Pension funds require some type of Govt intervention/backing
5) Unemployment 12%?
6) Couple of G20 nations on the brink of country bankruptcy?
7) China (and others) STOP buying US Treasuries?


Jonny said...

I think you're right GL - but is that what it looks like before 5000 or because of 5000 or a bit of both?

Either way, isn't the way this plays out Dow 6400 and then it's all daylight to 4800?

bg said...

It feels like there's two minutes to go and we're down by 15.

Peggy Noonan had a good comment yesterday...

In terms of policy, the jury not only is out but will be for some time. Years ago I wrote of an Italian woman in my neighborhood who made spaghetti every day. When I asked how you tell it's done, she showed me: You take a strand and fling it against the wall. If it's done, it sticks. If it's not done, it falls off the wall down the side of the stove. You keep flinging till one sticks. At the end of the day that is Obama's recovery plan. Cash infusions for the banks, fling. Tax increases, thwack. Pork—excuse me, public investment—splat. When we look back years from now, we'll see what stuck.


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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.