Thursday, February 14, 2008

Japan in the 90's?

A couple of weeks ago on this blog I thought the next round of thinking from the talking heads would be the possibility of the Fed cutting to ZERO interest rates. Don't laugh, Japan did it in the early 90's and it wasn't pretty. Well Ron Insana on CNBC just said that the Fed MUST cut to zero because the credit markets are close to crisis mode. The market started to look heavy to me mid morning ,and later in the day, one of the insurers got downgraded and that put the nail in the coffin. The solar stocks gave a bit back, and rightly so, but the shippers had a decent follow through for most of the day. My favorite shipper short GNK, is up about 22 points in three weeks. I covered at around $36. What a long side trade that would have been. I usually take it easy on options expiration day, so tomorrow I might be more of a bystander than anything. This market is like a crazy girlfriend. She will love on Monday and rip your soul out on Tuesday. My time frame in this market is about an hour, and that's long term. The shorts really are having their way here,and I'm one of them when I have to be. The longs seem to be selling every rally and the shorts love these rallies because they get to reload at higher prices. I will check in later.


Stewie said...

Stewie said...

nice post by the way and starting to align with my thinking right now.

upside said...



Stewie said...

Great Call on CMG short but i would have never taking it into earnings. some puts would have been sweet. keep em coming.

upsidetrader said...


puts or calls are the only way to play eps-you are so right-and I never do it-i think lower though on the name

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.