Wednesday, July 9, 2008

So, We Can't Blame Oil

The only bottom we are going to see anytime soon is the one on the left. I always loved Vanessa. Oil has been cooperating nicely, and this market can't get any mojo whatsoever, and if you throw out yesterdays pathetic attempt to rally, we look like we want to crash and make new lows. I'm glad I didn't drink the Kool Aide as I posted after the close yesterday. This is a sick market and it proves the pundits wrong again. It's really not ALL about oil. We are in a global recession and our financial system is close to flatline. This is all good though, very good, and does get us closer to a bottom. The bottom could be 10,000 on the Dow though. I made about 4 points on CLF short, 6 points on X short, 5 points on MA short, 3 points on ICE short, and about 7 points on SRS long. Banner day.We are going a lot lower kids. I will be back in a bit.


Stewie said...

bears ate the pretty cake the bulls built yesterday in one gulp. SPECTACULAR!

Nicholas said...

You were on fire today. Nice work!

upsidetrader said...

Hey, Upside,

First... I read what happened to you on 9/11, and words just can't describe my feelings. I'm glad you made it out OK. You seem to live life more fully than I, and I can't help but wonder if this experience contributed to that energy. Take care!

(For me, it started out a normal day. My wife and I were trading together at the time, and we were getting short as the market was rolling over. It was early and we were still flat when we got a call from our housewife-neighbor about the first plane. I believe, then, we got a notice on Realtick that the market was shutting down. We called it a day and were watching TV when the 2nd plane hit. Holy shit. Those f'kers. We were flat through the closed period, but our broker's clearinghouse was Reuters, and they were in one of the towers. Another holy shit.)

What I wanted to mention was...

Checkout the long tails on the solar stocks in the past 3 days. Very unusual. Normally, a turn (up) would pass through a low volatility period, but this is just the opposite. Several years ago, I studied a lot with Kevin Haggerty of (formerly of Fidelity), and he teaches a pattern he calls RST (reverse symmetrical triangle) that normally occurs 3 places: at major highs, at an important midpoint, and at major lows. It is a high volatility pattern that shakes most traders. These are not RSTs (yet), but they are high volatility patterns, and the solars that dropped hard are at a plausible important midpoint. This is one of those times that jumping the gun could cost a finger or two.


Exceptions: FSLR ENER

(It's good that the tape answers the questions that daily charts raise...)

upsidetrader said...


good stuff

upsidetrader said...

thanks guys,
getting a walmart= dow chemical bump here this morning-lets see if it can hold

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.