Friday, October 24, 2008

Afternoon Look

My gut tells me they crush this animal. I just don't trust a strong Friday rally. Will they just leave it here? Don't know. I'm in cash and waiting for direction. If they start to rollover I will play SMN long and MOS short aggressively. MOS had the biggest sell side volume of all the ags. yesterday

3 comments:

goomavitrader said...

Panic selling did not happen today. As usual, we up 300 and down 300. What is your take for Monday...Still go short on AG stocks...

upsidetrader said...

Hey, Upside,

Your scenario is pretty close to Art Cashin's this morning.

The pattern on SPX for example (similar on many stocks) from 10/9-10/23 "feels" like a complex version of a momentum continuation pattern that shows up when the bitch just can't retrace. Instead, it pauses, but is stretched in the direction of the trend. I'm sure you know what I'm talking about. To me, the limit-down and gaps today are confirmations. It's not unusual that the gap would close, then resume.

I'm holding open the strong possibility of much more to come on the downside, and using that pattern as the half-way point. I'm not looking for the mother of all rallies. BUT, I think that was a strong possibility before we got today's breakdown below the bottom of that pattern.

On SPX, there is a concentration of 4 closes just over 900. If we break above that with 1-2 hours or more left, we could get a high close with legs. Otherwise, I'm looking for much, much more down---well beyond Monday. I'm viewing that 900-910 area as the inflection point.

For what it's worth...

Good luck.

Vic

upsidetrader said...

goom
everything gets a fresh look on monday as we dont know what mood the market will be in, their charts are all badly damaged so i will short hard in a down market, but a rising tide will lift all boats if we rally

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.