Friday, October 24, 2008

Prolonging The Inevitable

I would have loved a 1000 point wash out with a 700 down open on Monday, but I guess when everyone is looking for the same thing it doesn't happen. There was a decent bottom to top rally, and at various times it looked like it wanted to make a run for the roses but failed, especially in the last five minutes. Just pretty choppy for me with the end result being about a break even.

This market will give you fits, and the choppiness and violent moves are just wicked. I think at the absolute minimum we have to test the lows of two weeks ago, or this miserable action will continue. I personally feel we see the low 7000's but I need to see the recent lows. The bottom feeders were out in full force again and I really don't get it, but that's just me.

I've been very concerned with the layoffs that are getting announced on a daily basis. 4000 here 5000 there, and it's daily. This adds up and will sink its teeth into an already fragile economy for months to come. Credit cards and car loans will be front page soon and I've been saying that for a while.

I look at these stocks and ask myself, can these names go lower? You know the names, pick any one of them. AKS, MOS,AAPL it goes on and on, but I remind myself that asked the same question 40 or 50% ago, and yes they could and did go lower. Why can't AKS be $7, MOS $15 or AAPL $75? I've never seen a global meltdown before, have you? Of course you have to be prepared for rallies( I wasn't at all today) because there will be easy money to be made. Whatever wealth the American public had, has been almost terminally compromised. The consumer is finished for now and the question becomes timing. How long before more homes, credit cards and cars get washed down the toilet over the next six to twelve months.

Getting tired of being the pissy guy at the cocktail party but I call em like I see em. Newsletter and links in the morning. Hope everyone had a profitable week.


About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.