Friday, October 31, 2008

Oooooooohhhh I'm All Bullish

Not. I charted and circled the most recent two day in a row rallies. Big whoop. Part of the bottoming process maybe, but not the bottom. A low isn't a bottom. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. How about the last hour again? Wild right? Even the quants and black box guys were yelling WTF? Welcome to the machine.

I caught some nice long side trades in MOS and SSO but gave some back in SDS which ended up being the right call for about five minutes in the last hour until I got stopped. Hate when that happens. My boy Charlie Gasparino looked fit as a fiddle today and I'm glad. The market is still very tentative and it would have been a shame if the day long base building resulted in another implosion. The market fought hard today, and deserves a well fought victory. Folks have e-mailed me and have asked if I have left the bear camp. I am a bear, but not a perma-bear, and am perfectly capable of getting long. I do think however, that a resumption of the down side will be back soon. The credit crisis is just beginning to morph into an economic crisis, although it does look like Sheila Bair wants to take all mortgage holders off the hook. We'll see.

Happy Halloween everybody!!!!

5 comments:

Q4 said...

As I usually focus the NDX, it tested the daily 20EMA 3 days in a row and today finally got well above it but again hammered back down before close. I am still on the short side as I don't believe it is turning up yet as it must take the time to consolidate from a nearly 40% drop last 2 months.

MikeAnthony said...

Nice post. I'm bearish too, and now seems like a gift to go short. If I invested or overnighted, I would definitely be short, but I only do day microtrades, so larger-market movements don't affect me to much.

Wanted to write to say I enjoy your blog. I hope to be back and read more. I keep a log of my trades at solear.org/blog, if you ever feel like reading another trader's decisions. Currently not in the green, but I'm trying to keep good records nevertheless.

Thanks for running the blog. Best of luck to your efforts in tipping the odds in your favor :-)

upsidetrader said...

mike
thanks and i will check out your blog, i too am flat by the close 90% of the time

Stewie said...

up: lets the bullish juice run a lil longer. the setup will be only sweeter....

Jesse W said...

great technical analysis and I have to agree for the short term in this market!

Jesse W.
http://www.subprimeblogger.com

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.