Monday, October 6, 2008

When You Will Know It's Safe To Go Back Into The Market

WHEN THEY STOP SELLING THE RALLIES. Today the market got within 25 points of my 9500 first target and honestly it feels good to be right. Frankly at one point I thought 9000 could be in the cards today. The market staged a nice rally after an 800 point dip and closed down 370 points. Does that mean that we hit bottom because they bought the dip or should I say bought the crash? No, but it did stop the bleeding temporarily. Markets like today tell you that the worst is not over and it probably tells you that that believe it or not, there could be more pain ahead. Honestly. I'm tired of talking about it and being so negative. Perhaps that in itself is a sign of the bottom as I am more interested in looking for longs than shorts for the first time in a year.

If you are a trader and have had a short bias like me, then you are wondering what all the fuss is about, because this market for us has been paved with gold. I doubt that I could ever be as good on the long side as this has been a once in a lifetime series of calamities that may not happen again for decades.

Wouldn't it be ironic if the market goes up when they they take the "no short handcuffs" off in a few days as the market just plummeted when they put them on?

If anyone told me SDS would be up 10 points in a day even I would have called them crazy. Catch you later and hope you guys survived.


George Jackson said...

I think there is more downside. Many financials are at 2X their July 15 levels. That tells me everyone has stayed away from them, including the hedge funds. Hoping for a PPT rate cut tomorrow to bok some profits--went long MOS, CHK, and FLR close to the bottom (got very lucky) and held overnight. Later.

upsidetrader said...

good point and good luck tomorrow

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.