Saturday, January 17, 2009

Financials, the Long Good Bye

They may bounce, but maybe not.

10 comments:

Bob Brill said...

Just wondering about you and the finnies. Is it you know a lot about the businesses, or it's just been a prime area to trade? Building on your post, further wondering if it's time to move onto another sector for a trade since a lot of wind has come out the sails as far as downside. The upside play on US gov't stewardship seems like an iceberg. As I just tweeted, my stomach is a bit knotted by: majority banks saw bailout program as no-strings-attached windfall usable to pay debt, acquire or invest. stomach-turner http://bit.ly/haRT

Steve Patterson said...

Looks like they broke to the downside which is not a good sign. It's going to take a lot of economic good news to turn around the financials.

Steve said...

GS is sitting precariously below the 50 day ma. I wonder if the saying "the nail that sticks out the farthest gets hit the hardest" will apply here. They own the US government, and if they can't rally, I suppose nothing else will.

upsidetrader said...

bob
i've just had a bearish macro view for a year and as a capitalist i just cant get long nationalization and the government-it destroys everything it touches

Charts and Coffee said...

Using the Confidence Index as a case for going long HYG and short LQD (or perhaps just looking at HYG long) - www.chartsandcoffee.com

upsidetrader said...

steve
i think gs goes to 50-60

steveplace said...

A bounce would be nice. Not a large one, but just enough of a pullback where they start bragging on CNBC again. HBC will be a fan favorite soon, the chart is reminding me of LEH

BullPreacher said...

x

BullPreacher said...

Appreciate your insight. Is it not impossible for there to be a meaningful rally with your outlook on the financials.
I mean the financials will have to lead any sustained rally in the market. Is that not correct?

upsidetrader said...

hey bull
the only direction the financials will lead is down-the sector is broken

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.