Thursday, January 1, 2009


Well 2008 is done, over, finito, finished. I cried for hours but just got a hold of myself. Some day this war will end but not yet, still more after shock, still more shoes to fall from the sky. You guys know my slant by now so I will not be redundant. I have some resolutions, some are tongue and cheek and some are serious.

I promise to short one hundred XLF share every time CNBC says "bottom"

I promise to short one hundred IYR share every time Cramer makes a call, then changes his mind then blames someone else for saying it.

I promise to short one hundred RTH shares when a pundit says we definitely bottomed after a 300 point up day.

I promise to short 200 shares the following day when the market drops 400 points.

I promise to stay true to my convictions like last year, I never swayed and it saved my ass and produced enormous profits, even though many times I felt freakishly alone in my view.

I promise to write, produce, direct and star in a new cable show called "Short Money"

I promise to hold my shorts and longs a little longer during the day. Too many stocks did what I thought they would do, but without me because of my impatience.

I promise to increase size dramatically and press very hard when I know I'm right.

I promise to help, assist, educate people who have a sincere interest in seeing the other side of the market.

I promise to name names when people are idiots, they need to be accountable.

I promise a hottie a day on my twitter homepage.

I promise to tighten up my blog and make it even better for you guys.

I promise to unfollow anyone on twitter who buys mutual funds or gives money to a Fund of Funds.

I promise to assemble a group of Navy Seals and Special Ops to kidnap and then detain all analysts.

I promise to personally fund a make over for Abby Joseph Cohen.

I promise to continue to expose liars, charlatans, bull shit artists and phonies of all types, politically and economically.

I promise not to say 'I told you so" when commercial real estate implodes, financials retest their lows, retail goes bankrupt and China fails.

I promise to post my Stocktwits trades as fast as possible or just start charging you a few hundred a month so you can continue to be exposed to genius and greatness in real time.

I promise not to pay if Obama raises my taxes.

I promise not to use Wesley Snipes lawyer.

I promise to remain jaded and cynical because I've seen it all and nobody can tell me different. I am a pisser at parties though.

I promise to be accountable because many of you trust me and I take that seriously.

I promise to maybe start a small long/short fund again, money is just a way of keeping score, being right was always more of a rush for me.

OK, that's it for now. Hey, comment me or email what you think on two counts, 1- what will the market do tomorrow? and 2-how will the market end the year? I will post results Saturday morning.
Also for the new readers don't forget to sign up for free updates through my RSS feed or by e-mail. And don't forget the newsletter.

Now lets go kick some ass!!


Scott said...


I think the market opens up and closes down tomorrow. I also think the year is double digit in loses - 11% on the S&P.

I look forward to following you on Twitter.


Madhu said...

I promise I will follow u on twitter more often.

1. Market will be up
2. S&P ends down 20%


Gary said...

Tomorrow - down 1%
2009 - down 20%

Glenn said...

1. It is what it is and it doesn't matter if it goes up or down.

2. See number 1

DMA said...

Nice post.
Have a good trading year.

I have no ideea about market tommorow but if i have to pick one i would say down. I think market will go down at the begining of the year, then up and then at the end down again as economists will realise that economy is not recovering :)

Bob Brill said...

Your humor shows thru your writing: ya gotta be fun at parties, or just be sure to show that further side. I'm not overly concerned with Fri nor end of year, expecting net rise in coming few days. Mainly watching for good set-ups as volume increases, where the watching includes paying attention to you and others. Best, Bob

Barnacle Bill said...

Doesn't matter what we predict, the only thing that matters is what it does. Chester's charts always sing. Ride 'em cowboy, up and down.

I'm new to your blog, I think I like it.

Maybe SPX rallies more, seems to be up now. Funnymentals are horrific. Mr. Mkt wants to discount them for now. But if we see 09 SPX earnings of 42 points (that's S&P's target now), I'd say there is hella downside.

I'm looking to get short again, looking for the SPX death-roll.

upsidetrader said...

Barnacle Bill
thanks for coming by and hope you stick around, i am with u 100% on s&p earnings-shoes will be flying more than a Bush speach

Kieran said...

Cool blog, for sure. I'm with you that there's more downside, but be careful about the possibility of the mother of all bear rallies coming our way. Look at a chart from 1929-30. If the market rallies as much now as it did then, we'll see DOW 12,500 before the rally ends. Not to say that it WILL happen, but it definitely could happen. I'm legging into my shorts, slowly but surely.

novicetrader said...

Caught your Dec 31 post and really enjoyed it! I expect a bear market rally in the near term; but,trading my beliefs Cost me $$$ for most of 2008 and trying to hold trades overnight.I only managed to reverse that by using fast charts and closing at the EOD.
I look forward to reading your blog!NT

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.