Friday, January 2, 2009

The Bulls Take the Hill To Start 2009

The big debate from what I read, and people I talk to, is how will the month of January fare? From my synthesis of the debate, it seems to be cut down the middle. Half think we rally hard out of the gate and the other half think we could get crushed and then move up. Frankly, I really don't have a big opinion here because this is such a crazy market, it's so hard to call. It is a traders market for now and that's how I will treat it. It's silly in my opinion to make bets either way beyond a day, but that's just me. I'm trading what it gives me. I still have a bearish market view, but that doesn't mean we can't rally substantially from these levels. The DOW closed above 9000 and the S&P closed above 924. There is a lot of cash lying around, and all work and no play can make Mr. Market a very vindictive boy. I'm not stupid.

With that said, I don't think the bulls or the bears should get cocky here because complacency on both sides will rip out your heart every time. I'm ready to be long, then short, then long again if that becomes necessary. You get the picture.

We have all lived through history this past year, so anyone who tells you where we will be in a day, a week or a month is probably someone you will want to avoid at all cost. The volume has been non existent and we probably won't see a real trend for a couple of weeks, unless volume picks up dramatically. Volume rarely lies, we just need to see it stay around for more than a couple of days. We could see a cyclical bull, certainly not a secular bull in my opinion. I plan on making hay either way.

Stick around, it's gonna get hot. I'll publish some links, posts and the newsletter this weekend. Have a great night and get your rest and don't forget to sign up for the blog feed and newsletter.


James said...

alot of indicators that I look at say this market is pretty overbought even on an intermediate horizon. Maybe the indexes rally somewhat further, but I that sectors are going to begin breaking down pretty soon.
Also, the banks are total joke which cant inspire any longerm confidence

Bob Brill said...

I like your recent style of posts, if you have made a more concerted effort to narrate. So many links come around twitter that I'd recommend one to two sentences of your take beside each weekend link, rather than the bare list. You are a key source for me in touching the daily market pulse. Have a great weekend. -Bob

upsidetrader said...

hey bob
thanks, will try

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.