Tuesday, February 10, 2009

No Trust, No Confidence, No Bids

I heard "we will, we will, we will" today, but not much " we did. we did, we did." I thought we were paying for "we did."? But don't worry to much, you have warrants in AIG to get you through while you wait for the XLF to bounce off $5.

Today was a disgrace and the administration got a D- on how to communicate policy to investors big AND small, and more importantly, the American public. Tim Geithner tried to do his best Eddie Haskel, but it didn't fly. Folks are too smart and they are now seasoned and salty veterans after all the previous fandangos, TARP 1,2 and TALF. This is fast becoming a goat screw of biblical proportions and frankly I think we're done. The market needed shock and awe, it's what I've been writing about all week, and all it got was a wet firecracker. The market Gods aren't stupid and they destroyed the heretics from K Street.

The only thing bigger than Geithner's ears is his probable belief that investors would buy the nonsense he spewed today. If this is change we can count on load me up on FAZ and I'll see you all in a few months. How about housing? Oh, that's coming in a few weeks. The porkulus package is done right? Nah, Steny Hoyer just said it is now the end of NEXT week,and don't forget the market is closed this coming Monday. So it's all good in the hood and long is wrong as usual.

When we look back on this market years from now, we will notice that every rally has been the shorting opportunity of a lifetime, that's how I've played it for over a year and I don't plan on changing a thing. Unless you're Cramer and the pundits, then you buy the rip and sell the dip.


rahmin said...

yes yes yes. we've had enough of fucking around and nonsense talk. let's just let it rip hard and get the blood letting done with.

re: buy the rip and sell the dip, did you sell off shorts into the close? holding overnight? any read on the week ahead?

RBM said...

Quick Question cause you seem to get this right all the time. I had to go to meetings most of the day today. I also own 1000 UYG @ 3.78 which I wanted to hang onto (Don't ask why, it will just sound silly now.). So before I go to my meetings I buy 100 FAZ @ 41.22 to hedge the UYG and put a stop of 39.75 figuring that at that point the direction of the day would be set. Needless to say I get stopped out way before Timbo's speech. My question is with the 3x's where should I have put the stop? 10%, more and how can you calculate it

Anonymous said...
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TcH3rNo said...

Fazzie Fazzie?

Mike Mabe said...

I agree with your assessment!

upsidetrader said...

all i can really tell u is tahy i personally use 50 cent to $1 stop on faz-depending on mkt volatility

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.