Thursday, March 26, 2009

The Financials Go To Washington

I'm just wondering when the obnoxious, daily shoving of big government up our collective asses will start to take an affect on the market. Unless things have changed, well they have actually, the market doesn't like regulation, never did, never will. It's what makes us Capitalists for goodness sake. China is petrified to hold our debt, who cares, where are they going to go? I have some Zimbabwe dollars for them if they keep bitchin'. How about some loot out of the Ukraine or Iceland? Shut up, don't threaten us. Go shoot a missile somewhere, preferably at North Korea.

I told Tim Geithner the other night on the blog that I would be fine with giving him 880-990 on the S&P before all hell breaks loose again and the bulls that hold, will be stung and betrayed for the upteenth time. You know I believe the financials are still on life support and are temporarily benefiting from a combination short squeeze and nonsense rhetoric out of Washington. I said here that it would run for a bit and even called the technical move almost to the penny off the lows. My thought process was that it would run until we got closer to the results of the bank stress tests. Zero Hedge has a nice analysis on the stress test and TARP and frankly he does a wonderful job pointing out what could happen. Global Macro has some cheery thoughts as well, suggesting that the XLF will be Geithner's biggest holding and that the index will revisit the lows. It's a great analysis and you don't have to twist my arm to agree with the thinking from both writers. It's another viewpoint on things, so let me know what you think.

We have the end of the month/quarter coming up real fast, so get ready for all the clueless 24 year old mutual fund portfolio managers to window dress and get long some stocks, assuming they're not buying Timmy's toxic waste over the next few days. Don't forget that first quarter earnings season is coming and the numbers will be atrocious and the financials are close to the results of the stress test, I hear Warren Buffet is on the treadmill right now. And don't forget, commercial real estate is still going to implode. Retail is also getting shortable again and RTH is starting to look like a a porterhouse at Peter Lugers to me again. Keep your guard up and stay nimble. I'll be on twitter with some ideas today. See you there.

P.S. But don't worry, our Senate is hard at work.

3 comments:

Scott said...

Joe,

Thanks for your great insight. I start my day reading you. See you on Twitter.

BTW... I followed you in some on FAZ. I am now under water some (avg price is 19.50).

Would you recommend holding if it goes lower, adding more to get average down, or, just waiting till end of Q for FAZ to go north?

Thanks,
Scott Sherman

Damien said...

Great comments. I really enjoy your stuff. If you haven't already read The Big Takeover article, it's a must read -- sent from a CDS trader to me:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/26793903/the_big_takeover/

upsidetrader said...

thanks damien, i did finally get through it, it was well done-i loved it and put it on the weekend linky dinks-thx again

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.