Thursday, April 16, 2009

Go Figure

OK, the $64,000 question, why is retail (RTH), consumer discretionary (XLY), commercial real estate (IYR), and the financials (XLF), trading like today is your last day to buy stocks? When department stores receive credit downgrades by S&P, commercial real estate is going bust, folks are still not buying Starbucks or 50 inch plasmas and the banks are still broke and may even get broker before it's all over? Shoot me an e-mail, I want to know your thoughts. It really is the old story though, just as stocks stay over sold, they can stay over bought. How many times did you hear back in November and January that we were so over sold and desperately due for a bounce, only to get bludgeoned further like little baby seals. As the pain was unrelenting then, the ecstasy can be equal in duration. No one rings a bell at the bottom, or the top for that matter, and while many of us want to buy FAZ, SRS and many of the assorted leveraged etf's, the market just keeps taking money from the short sellers-everyday. I wrote many times over the last few months that the market wouldn't crash at all because we were in a constant "state of crash." The big capitulatory event never really came, there wasn't a beast tolling the bell at 666 on the S&P. There won't be anyone ringing the bell at the top that is coming either. That's why I try and trade it like I see it and take nothing for granted.

Tomorrow they kill the options and it's Friday, kind of like a silver bullet and a full moon for me, I suck on Friday. I caught GOOG for 14 baloons in the aftermarket today, the trade lasted about four minutes, no way I'm giving that back tomorrow--I hope.


Quint said...

What I love... I can feel how you want to unleash the Spartans once again but you respect the tape and play what is. Beautiful my friend, keep it up!


upsidetrader said...


You have read my mind good buddy, geez, but we have to play the hand, doesnt make sense but it never does, that's the beauty


Garrai Eoin said...

I have heard theories ranging from "quant fund squeezing" to Ultra ETFs have changed a lot of the market action. I'm not savvy enough to figure out, so I just watch my stocks, check out price and volume, and try to jump on a setup when it happens.

Very tight hug-the-swing-low stops up here, though.

About Me

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I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.