Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Is It Real or Is It Memorex?

Yesterday the down volume was 40% over the three month average, but not today,weak volume, and we sold off at the end of the day, not that bullish if you ask me. Asia is continuing the rally as I write so we will have to see if it lasts. The unemployment data is coming and that could change things.

The dollar is up but not because we are thriving as a nation but because the rest of the world is falling apart, and yes, we are still the only game in town. The Euro is going downtown and Eastern Europe should start the contagion through the rest of Europe soon. The financials are dead, my God, who would want to own them other than for a trade? Their toxicity has toxicity and credit downgrades are coming, making it harder for them to raise money. My prediction here is that that they are going lower, I know it seems impossible, but as we get closer to the results of the "stress tests", investors are going to run the other way. No one will want to be long uncertainty. Why the rebel yell to buy commodities? That's all I heard all day. Didn't we just get finished kicking the snot out of Potash? Oh yeah, Brazil may be cutting Potash prices by 25%. Did the global economy get fixed yesterday? I must have missed the memo. But there is always a bull market somewhere, right? BOOYAH.

I put it on the line every day in my trading and on this blog. I never hedge, especially on the blog because you don't want to hear an "it could go either way" type of stance. How could any modicum of value then exist? So maybe we do go 1000 or 2000 from here and I have a little yolk on my face, I'm in cash every morning so it doesn't matter to me, this is just me being macro. All I know is that I had my second best day trading in months and months (yesterday was big) and I did one small long trade, everything else was short. Go figure. I'm trying to find the "guy" who said the market bottoms six months before the recession ends, that would imply that you know when the recession will end. This market is like NO OTHER MARKET, SO THROW OUT THE PLAYBOOK!!!!!!!!!!!

But that's just me.

3 comments:

Jonny said...

Joe: Just wanted to acknowledge your point about putting it on the line and never hedging - especially on the blog and your Tweets.

You're right about this.

And it makes you pretty special.

It's true that there's more information available to us than at any point in history and yet 99.9% of it is utterly useless and unactionable because the people creating it don't have the guts to actually stand behind an idea, an opinion, a point of view or a clue.

You are one of the few people I know that actually writes with immediacy, honesty and - above all - generosity. And this last quality sets you apart from even most people in the .1%.

Thanks, man. That's all. Just thanks.

elditto said...

I'm trying to find the "guy" who said the market bottoms six months before the recession ends, that would imply that you know when the recession will end. This market is like NO OTHER MARKET, SO THROW OUT THE PLAYBOOK!!!!!!!!!!!
LMAO!!!!! Indeed.
Does anyone relize how really bad it is?

2lonestar said...

"That's just me."

Hey man, you are brilliant and you nailed it with that THROW OUT THE PLAYBOOK comment.

So when the big "GAME OVER" message flashes up there on the screen?

Reboot, reload, play again.

It's all virtual anyway, and "there is no spoon."

About Me

My photo
I am a former hedge fund manager, broker and capital markets dude who now trades for his own account. I love what I do. I will try to post some stocks and an occasional chart that looks attractive for entry.I will also try to point out the idiocy of conventional wisdom and the lack of value added by the mainstream financial media. These postings should not be viewed as recommendations.